GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 28 – Jan. 1


GBP/USD showed some downward movement but ended the week unchanged, closing at 1.4925. The final week of 2015 has just two events on the schedule. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the US, Final GDP for the third quarter posted a gain of 2%, very close to the estimate. Housing numbers disappointed, and durable goods were weak, but within expectations.


GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

GBPUSD Daily Chart Dec. 28-Jan1

  1. Nationwide HPI: Wednesday, 7:00. This housing inflation indicator provides a snapshot of the health of the activity of the UK housing sector. The index slipped to 0.1% to November, well off the estimate of 0.5%. The markets are expecting a turnaround in December, with an estimate of 0.4%.
  2. Housing Equity Withdrawal: Thursday, 9:30. New home-secured loans decreased in the second quarter, dropping by GBP 10.9 billion, better than the estimate of GBP 12.5 billion. The markets are expecting a decrease of GBP 10.5 billion in Q3.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.4906 and quickly touched a low of 1.4805. The pair then recovered and climbed to 1.4945, as resistance held at 1.5026 (discussed last week). GBP/USD closed the week at 1.4925.

Live chart of GBP/USD:

Technical lines from top to bottom

1.5269 was a cap in November.

1.5163 is the next resistance line.

1.5026 held firm as the pound was unable to make much headway last week.

1.4856 is an immediate support line. It has remained intact since April.

1.4752 is the next support level.

1.4601 was an important cap in December 2001. It is the final support line for now.

I am neutral on GBP/USD.

Last week was uneventful for the pair, and the pattern could continue over the Christmas holiday. Any choppiness this week will be primarily due to thin trading.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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