GBP/USD Forecast Feb. 15-19

GBP/USD  was unchanged  last  week, closing just below the 1.45 line. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the US, employment numbers bounced back last week with solid readings, while retail sales reports were soft but met expectations. In the UK, Manufacturing Production posted a third straight decline.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Rightmove HPI: Monday, 00:01. This housing inflation indicator provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the UK housing sector. The index posted a gain of 0.5% in January, following two straight declines.
2. CPI: Tuesday, 9:30. CPI is the most important inflation release and should be treated as a market-mover. The index edged up to 0.2% in December, within expectations. Another slight improvement is expected in January, with an estimate of 0.3%.
3. PPI Input: Tuesday, 9:30.  This index measures inflation in goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index has posted two straight declines, and another drop is expected in January, with a forecast of -1.2%.
4. RPI: Tuesday, 9:30.   This important inflation indicator includes housing prices, which are excluded from the CPI report. The index improved to 1.2% in December, above the estimate of 1.0%. The upward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 1.4%.
5. Average Earnings Index: Wednesday, 9:30. This event is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The indicator dropped to 2.0% in November, within expectations. Little change is expected in December, with an estimate of 1.9%.
6. Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 9:30. In December, this key indicator dropped for the first time in four months, coming in at -4.3 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 4.1 thousand. Another decline is expected in January, with a forecast of -2.9 thousand. The unemployment rate  has  dropped  steadily in the second half of 2015, and is expected to  dip to 5.0% in the  December report.
7. BOE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe Speaks:  Thursday, 00:01.  Cunliffe will speak at an  event in Brussels. The markets will be looking for hints regarding the BOE’s future monetary policy.
8. Retail Sales:  Friday, 9:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and an unexpected reading can have a strong impact on the direction of GBP/USD. The indicator has not impressed in recent readings, posting two declines in the past three months. The December reading of -1.0% was much worse than the forecast of -0.1%. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the January report, with an estimate of 0.8%.
9. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Friday, 9:30.  The budget deficit narrowed to 6.9 billion pounds in December, compared to 13.6 billion a month earlier. This figure was much better than the estimate of 10.1 billion pounds. The markets are expecting a surplus of 13.8 billion pounds  in the January report.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.4508 and  touched a  low of 1.4348. The pair then reversed directions and climbed  to a high of 1.4578, testing resistance at 1.4562 (discussed last week). GBP/USD closed the week at 1.4490.

Technical lines from top to bottom

We begin with resistance at 1.4856. This  line has  held firm since late December.

1.4752 is next.

1.4635 held firm in resistance, as GBP/USD posted strong gains before retracting.

1.4562 was tested but remains a weak resistance line.

1.4346 is providing support.

1.4227 is next.

1.4135 marked a low point in December 2001.

The symbolic level of 1.40 is the final support line. It was last breached in March 2009.

I am neutral on GBP/USD.

Both the US and UK have posted lukewarm numbers, and low inflation remains a concern in both countries. This week’s inflation and retail sales numbers out of the UK  will likely be important factors in how the pound fares this week.

Our latest podcast is titled What’s the Deal with the Death Cross? + Yellen and yen

Follow us on Sticher or on iTunes

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For the Canadian dollar (loonie), check out the USD to CAD forecast.