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GBP/USD  had another excellent week, gaining 300 points. The pair closed at 1.5865, its highest weekly close since October. There are 5 events this week.  Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The US continued to post mixed readings as inflation slipped, while employment and manufacturing numbers beat expectations. However, the real market-mover was the  Federal Reserve Statement,which was clearly dovish, and pushed the greenback sharply lower against cable. In the UK, most key readings were within expectations, including CPI.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

GBP_USD_Forecast.June22-26

  1. BOE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe Speaks:  Monday, 7:45. Cunliffe will address an event in Luton. A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the pound.
  2. CBI Industrial Order Expectations:  Tuesday, 10:00. This indicator is based on a survey of manufacturers. The index surprised with a very weak reading in May, coming in at -5 points. This was well short of the estimate of 3 points. The markets are expecting the indicator to move  back into positive territory, with an estimate of +1 point.
  3. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Wednesday, 8:30. Mortgage Approvals help gauge the health of the UK housing sector. The indicator has been improving over the course of 2015, and came in at 42.1 thousand in April, above the forecast of 39.2 thousand. The upward trend is expected to continue, with the estimate standing at 43.1 thousand.
  4. CBI Realized Sales: Thursday, 10:00. This index tends to show sharp fluctuations, leading to estimates that are often well off the mark of the actual readings. The May indicator surged to 51 points, crushing the estimate of 18 points. The estimate for the June reading stands at 32 points. Will the indicator repeat and beat the prediction?
  5. BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Friday, 14:15. Carney will address a conference in London. The markets will be listening closely for hints about the BOE’s future monetary stance, particularly its interest rate policy.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5565, and quickly touched a low of 1.5486. It was all uphill from there, as the pair climbed to a high of 1.5929, testing resistance at 1.5909 (discussed last week). GBP/USD closed the week at 1.5865.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

With the pound posting sharp gains last week, we begin at higher levels:

1.6287 was a cap in September.

1.6131 is an important resistance line which has held since late October.

1.6006 is next, just above the symbolic 1.60 level.

1.5909 has  held firm as resistance since November 2013, but was tested this week. Will this line fall next week?

1.5746 which was an important support level in January 2013, has switched back to a support role.

1.5682 was an important cap in December 2014 and January 2015.

1.5590 worked as support late in 2014 and was tested earlier in the month. It has strengthened after the pound’s sharp gains last week.

1.5485 is the final line of support for now.

I am bearish on GBP/USD.

With the pound surging almost 600 points in the past two weeks, are we due for a downward correction? Last week’s rally was due largely to the dovish Fed Statement rather than strength in the UK economy. US numbers have been lukewarm lately, so some stronger numbers this week could quickly restore confidence in the greenback.

In our latest podcast we digest the dollar dove dive, update on Greece and preview next week’s events.

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Further reading: