The British pound was hard hit for a second straight week, as the GBP/USD plunged over 300 points. The pair closed the week at 1.4725. This week’s highlight is Claimant Change. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]The US dollar continues to pummel its major rivals, and the pound took another beating last week. UK Manufacturing Production disappointed with a decline of 0.5%. In the US, unemployment claims were sharply lower, but inflation and consumer confidence numbers missed expectations.
GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Rightmove HPI: Monday, 00:01. This indicator provides a snapshot of activity in the UK housing sector. The indicator has been moving upwards, and posted a strong gain of 2.1% in the March estimate.
- CB Leading Index: Monday, 13:30.This is a minor event as most of the indicators have already been released. The index improved to 0.1% in December, breaking a streak of three straight declines.
- Average Earnings Index: Wednesday, 9:30. The indicator has improved over six straight readings, and posted a strong gain of 2.1%.in December, beating the forecast of 1.7%. The upward trend is expected to continue, with a January estimate of 2.2%.
- Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 9:30. This is the key event of the week. The indicator has been posting sharp declines, pointing to an improving labor market. The January report came in at -38.6 thousand, easily beating the forecast of -25.2 thousand. The forecast for the February release stands at -31.0 thousand. The unemployment rate has been moving lower, and dropped to 5.7% in December. The estimate for January stands at 5.6%.
- MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: Wednesday, 9:30. The BOE held rates at 0.5% at its last policy meeting, and the markets expect that the decision was unanimous (9-0).
- MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes: Wednesday, 9:30. Asset Purchase Facility remains at 375 billion pounds, and the votes have been unanimous since June 2013. No change is expected in the upcoming release.
- Annual Budget Release: Wednesday, 00:30. The annual budget is a key event, and should be treated as a market-mover by traders. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the budget’s spending and borrowing levels.
- 10-year Bond Auction: Thursday, Tentative. The yield slipped to 1.62% in the January yield.
- Public Sector Net Borrowing: Friday, 9:30. The indicator posted a surplus of GBP 9.4 billion in January, very close to the estimate. The markets are expecting a deficit in the February report, with an estimate of GBP 7.7 billion.
* All times are GMT
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5057 and touched a high of 1.5137, testing resistance at 1.5114 (discussed last week). It was all downhill from there as the pair plunged all the way to a low of 1.4699. The pair closed the week at 1.4725.
Live chart of GBP/USD:
[do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]Technical lines from top to bottom
With the pair posting sharp losses last week, we begin at lower levels.
1.5114 was tested early in the week but is currently a strong resistance line.
1.5008 has switched to a resistance role following the pound’s sharp losses.
1.4813 marked the start of a pound rally in July 2013 that saw GBP/USD climb above 1.61. It is an immediate support line.
1.4621 was an important cap in August 2001.
1.4521 is the next support line.
The final support level for now is 1.4346, which has remained intact since June 2002.
I am neutral on GBP/USD.
After the pound’s disappearing act in March, will we see some profit taking and a correction this week? In the US, speculation continues over an expected US rate hike, and an expected removal of “patience” by the Fed could strengthen the dollar.
In our latest podcast, we discuss QE: Who got it right, Krugman or the Gold bugs?
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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