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GBP/USD  reversed directions last week, as the pair dropped about 120  points last week. The pair  closed at 1.5309. This week’s  major event is Preliminary GDP. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the UK,  a superb Retail Sales wasn’t enough to stem the pound’s losses. The US dollar received some support last week from positive US data, as home sales and jobless claims beat their estimates. The euro plunged after hints from the ECB about further easing weighed on the pound, as investors sought the safety of the US dollar.

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GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

GBP_USD_Forecast.Oct26-30

  1. BBA Mortgage Approvals:  Monday, 9:30. This indicator provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the UK housing sector. The indicator has been fairly steady, and posted a reading of 46.7 thousand in August, above the forecast of 46.3 thousand. The estimate for the September reading stands at 46.2 thousand.
  2. CBI Industrial Order Expectations:  Monday, 11:00.  This manufacturing indicator has been struggling and continues to post readings below zero, which points to expectations of lower order volumes. The September reading plunged to -7 points, well below the estimate of 0. The markets are braced for another weak release in October, with a forecast of -8 points.
  3. Preliminary GDP:  Tuesday, 9:30. This is one of the most important indicators, and an unexpected reading can have a sharp effect on the direction of GBP/USD.  Final GDP in Q2 posted a gain of  0.7%, matching the forecast.     The estimate for Preliminary GDP in Q3 stands at 0.6%.
  4. 10-year Bond Auction:  Tuesday, Tentative. The average yield on 10-year bonds edged down to 1.95% in September, close to the yield of 1.98% a month earlier. Will we  see another decline in the October release?
  5. Nationwide HPI:  Thursday, 7:00. This housing inflation indicator improved in September, posting a gain of 0.5%, which was within expectations. Another gain of 0.5% is expected in the October report.
  6. Net Lending to Individuals:  Thursday, 9:30. Consumer credit levels are closely monitored since they are linked to consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The indicator jumped to 4.3  billion pounds in August, the fourth straight improvement. The estimate was 4.1 billion pounds. The upwards trend is expected to continue, with the  estimate standing at 4.4 billion pounds.
  7. CBI Realized Sales:  Thursday, 11:00. The indicator surged to 49 points in September, crushing the estimate of 29 points. The forecast for October is 35 points.
  8. GfK Consumer Confidence:  Friday, 00:05. Consumer confidence is closely monitored, as it is  closely linked to consumer  spending. The indicator slipped to 3 points in September, marking a 4-month low. The estimate for the October report stands at 4 points.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5433 and  touched a high of 1.5507.  The pair then reversed directions,  dropping to a  low of 1.5302,  as  support held firm at 1.5269  (discussed last week).  The pair closed the week at 1.5309.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

1.5825 was an important cap in November 2014.

1.5769 is the next resistance line.

1.5682 was a key resistance line  in December 2014 and January 2015.

1.5590 is the next line of resistance.

1.5485 was a cap in the first half of September.

1.5341  continues to be  busy and has switched to a resistance role. It is a weak line and could see more activity early in the week.

1.5269  was tested as the pound lost ground last week. It is weak support level.

1.5163 is the next support line.

1.5026 has provided support since April.

1.4856 is the final support line for now.

I am  bearish on GBP/USD

The US  may be  moving away from a rate hike in 2015, but monetary divergence continues to favor the dollar over the pound. The US economy  remains stronger than that of the UK, and  weak global conditions  may lead to more investors seeking safety with the US dollar at the expense of  the British pound.

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