GBP/USD Outlook Nov. 25-29

GBP/USD  continues  to rally, and  gained about 100 points last week.  The pair closed slightly over the 1.62 level. This week’s key releases are the Inflation Report  hearings and Second Estimate GDP.  Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The pound got a boost late in the week from a strong CBI Industrial Order Expectations and took advantage of awful manufacturing data out of the US on Friday.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

1. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Monday, 9:30. Mortgage Approvals continues to move higher, pointing to improvement  in the  UK housing  industry. The  September release came in at 43.0 thousand, well above the estimate of 39.4 thousand.  The markets are expecting an even stronger release for October, with an estimate of 45.2 thousand.
2. Nationwide HPI: Tuesday, 26th-29th. This housing price index provides a gauge of activity in the  British housing sector. The index has been moving higher, and posted a gain of 1.0% last month, its best showing in over a year. The estimate for the October release stands at 0.6%.
3. Inflation Report Hearings: Tuesday, 10:00. This key event can have a major impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The BOE governor and other policymakers will testify before the Treasury Committee regarding inflation and the economic outlook. With the British economy picking up steam, analysts will be keen to hear the Bank’s take on the economy.
4. Second Estimate GDP: Wednesday, 9:30. GDP releases are always eagerly awaited and should be treated as market-movers. The indicator is released  each quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. The Q2 estimate came in at 0.7%, edging out the estimate of 0.6%. The forecast for Q3 call for another strong release, at 0.8%.
5. Preliminary Business Investment: Wednesday, 9:30. This indicator measure the value of investments made by businesses and government. The indicator posted a healthy gain of 0.9%, reversing two straight declines. The markets are expecting a jump of 2.3% in the upcoming release. If the indicator can match or   beat this prediction, the pound could get a boost.
6. CBI Realized Sales: Wednesday, 11:00. With most British indicators pointing upwards, the plunge by Realized Sales last week was nothing short of shocking. The index slumped to just 2 points, down from 34 the month before. The markets are expecting a substantial improvement in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 12 points.
7. 30-year Bond Auction: Thursday, Tentative. Yields on 30-year bonds continue to rise, with the September average yield coming in at 3.74%. As a minor event, this month’s release is unlikely to impact on GBP/USD.
8. BOE Financial Stability Report: Thursday, 10:30. This report looks at the stability of the UK financial system and proposes suggestions as to what positive steps the Bank can take. Governor Carney will host a press conference about the report.
9. GfK Consumer Confidence: Friday, 00:05. Consumer confidence is a crucial component for economic growth. The indicator continues to struggle in negative territory, posting a reading of -11 points in September. The estimate for October stands at -8 points, which would mark a multi-year high for the indicator.
10. Net Lending to Individuals: Friday, 9:30. Net Lending is closely connected to confidence and spending, and as such is an important indicator.  The indicator has been rising in recent months, but last month’s reading of 1.9 billion pounds was well short of the estimate of 2.5 billion. The estimate  for October stands at 2.1 billion.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.6112. The pair dropped to a low of 1.6060, but then reversed directions and climbed sharply, rising all the way to 1.6226. The pair closed at 1.6224, as resistance at 1.6247 (discussed last week) held firm.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

We  begin with resistance at 1.6705, which has remained firm since May 2011. This is followed by the round number of 1.6600.

1.6475 is next. This line has held firm since August 2011. This is followed by 1.6343. This line was last breached when the pound dropped sharply in August 2011.

We next encounter resistance at 1.6247. This was a key resistance line in October and November 2012, but weakened last week as the pound posted more gains. The line held firm and starts the week as weak resistance.

1.6125  is providing the pair with support. This line has strengthened as GBP/USD trades at higher levels.

1.60, a key psychological barrier, is providing strong support. Next is 1.5893 which saw action earlier in November.

1.5752 was breached in mid-September by the surging pound but has provided solid support since then.

The final support level for now is 1.5648.  This line reverted to a support role  in early September.

I am  neutral on GBP/USD.

UK economic indicators continue to  point upwards and this has helped the pound continue moving higher. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has indicated that it could take tapering action shortly, and scaling back QE is a dollar-positive event.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.