Search ForexCrunch

GBP/USD showed movement in both directions but ended the week about 100 points higher. The pair closed slightly over the 1.61 level. The upcoming week has a light schedule, with just six releases. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The pound got a boost from excellent British employment numbers, which continue to impress. US numbers were not as sharp, with employment and  trade balance  numbers falling  short. As well,  incoming Fed chair Susan Yellen’s comments supporting further QE weighed on the dollar.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:     GBP USD Outlook Nov 18-22

  1. Rightmove HPI: Monday, 00:01. This housing inflation indicator is an important gauge of the UK housing market. The index posted a gain of 2.8% in September, marking a five-month high.
  2. 10-year Bond Auction: Tuesday, Tentative. 10-year bonds have  been trading close to 3%, with the average annual yield at the previous auction coming in at 2.74%. No significant change is expected in the November release.
  3. MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes: Wednesday, 9:30. The breakdown of the MPC vote on QE has been unanimous  (9-0) since July. A split vote  would show a difference of opinion regarding QE  which  could lead to some volatility from GBP/USD.
  4. MPC  Official Bank Rate  Votes: Wednesday, 9:30. The BOE made no change to the benchmark interest rate, and the markets are expecting the vote to have been unanimous. A split vote would indicate some dissent from the decision not to adjust rates, which could result in volatility from the pair.
  5. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Thursday, 9:30. Public Sector Net Borrowing has been posted two straight deficits, although both of these readings beat their estimates. The deficit is expected to widen to 10.1 billion pounds in October, compared to 9.4 billion the month before.
  6. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Thursday, 11:00. This important manufacturing index crashed in September, posting  a reading of -4 points, compared to 9 points the month before. The markets are expecting a turnaround in October, with an estimate of 0 points in the upcoming release.

* All times are GMT

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.6002. The pair dropped to a low of 1.5854, but then reversed directions and climbed sharply, rising all the way to 1.6135. The pair closed at 1.6118, as resistance at 1.6125 (discussed last week) held firm.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

We start with resistance at 1.6705, which has remained firm since May 2011. This is followed by the round number of 1.6600.

1.6475 is next. This line has held firm since August 2011. This is followed by 1.6343. This line was last breached when the pound dropped sharply in August 2011.

We next encounter resistance at 1.6247. This was a key resistance line in October and November 2012 and continues to provide strong resistance.

1.6125  was breached late  in  the week, but remained intact at the end of the week. It is a weak line which could see action early this week.

1.60, a key psychological barrier, was briefly breached as the pair dropped early in the week. This line has some breathing room as GBP/USD trades above the 1.61 line.

1.5893 was breached as the pair lost ground, but continues to provide strong support.

1.5752 was breached in mid-September by the surging pound but has provided solid support since then.

1.5648 was  in  a resistance  role since June, but has been providing support role since early September.

1.5550 is the final support line for now. This line last saw action in mid-June.

 

I am  bullish on GBP/USD.

The pound had a good week, and with the UK economy headed in the right direction, could post further inroads against the dollar. US numbers have run into turbulence lately, and incoming Fed head Yellen is in no rush to taper QE, a move which would bolster the US dollar.

Further reading: