The pound surrendered to global pressures and touched an 8 month low against the greenback. The upcoming week consists of the interesting MPC meeting minutes among other events. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
Inflation remains high in the UK, but this isn’t a great concern at the moment. The pound was relived by a not-so-bad jobs report, although the situation remains worrying, and the door for more QE is still open.
GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Rightmove HPI: Sunday, 23:00. This report relates to the current month, September, but despite its freshness, it isn’t the most accurate report available. Nevertheless, its early release sets the tone for the beginning of the week. Significant falls have been reported in the past two months. A rise is likely after last month’s 2.1% drop.
- MPC Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 8:30. With no change in the interest rates nor the QE program, the focus remain at the meeting minutes. Last month, we’ve witnessed a shift in the position of two members that previously voted for a rate hike. So currently, no member wants a hike. Only one member, Adam Posen, voted for an expansion of the Asset Purchase Facility (QE) program by 50 billion pounds. If one more member voted with Posen, or if the committee discussed this seriously, the pound will drop.
- Public Sector Net Borrowing:Tuesday, 8:30. The current government in Britain vowed to cut public spending and manged to distance itself from other debt struck countries, though at a price. Last month saw a surprising surplus in the government’s flow, of 2 billion. This helped the pound. A small deficit is likely now.
- CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Thursday, 10:00. The rise back to positive territory last month (+1) has shown that the drop to -10 reported beforehand was a one time event. A small negative number is likely now, showing a tendency towards lower volume.
- BBA Mortgage Approvals: Friday, 8:30. The British Bankers’ Association has provided optimism in the housing sector by showing a rise in mortgage approvals to 33.4K. A similar number is likely now. BBA represents around two thirds of British mortgages.
* All times are GMT.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
Pound/dollar kicked off the week at important support at 1.5780 (mentioned last week). When this was broken, it fell to an 8 month low at 1.5706, and eventually managed to make a small recovery and close at 1.5789.
Technical levels from top to bottom
We start the lines from the veteran region of 1.6280 – 1.63 remains of high importance. 1.62 served as a top just now and the failure to break higher marked the beginning of the downfall. It provided a more solid bottom beforehand.
Further below, 1.6110 is another veteran line. It quickly turned into support before the next move higher. Yet again, its importance was seen. Below, the round number of 1.60 is weaker now, but still draws attention.
1.5910, which was a peak many months ago, gave a fight, but was eventually broken and is distinct line separating ranges. Any recovery attempt will meet fierce resistance here. 1.5823, which worked as stubborn support early in the year is now minor resistance.
It is closely followed by the swing low of 1.5780, which also minor resistance in 2010, which turned into immediate support now. 1.5706, which is the fresh bottom is the next support line.
1.5650 was a clear line separating ranges at the beginning of the year. 1.5550 is the next line below after providing support back in December.
1.5480 has a minor role as support after working as resistance a long time ago. The ultimate low is the year to date trough at 1.5350. It’s getting closer.
I remain bearish on GBP/USD.
More signs of British weakness, especially in the job market, point to more weakness in the pound. Even if Ben Bernanke announces new monetary easing measures (no QE3 is likely), this will not be very different from the UK, which might find itself in its own QE2 in the not-so-distant future.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
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