A variety of indicators is released in the UK this week, and will shape the direction of the Pound. Here’s an outlook for the British events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
British figures in the past week weren’t too good – employment is still problematic. While the Pound gained the dollar, it was less than other currencies’ gains.
- Rightmove HPI: Published Sunday, 23:00. This report isn’t considered the most accurate house price index. Nevertheless, it’s the earliest one and tends to move the Pound when there are no other indicators available. Prices of homes will probably see another drop – the third in a row. Last month saw a big drop – 1.7%.
- Mortgage Approvals: Published Monday, 8:30. This is an official yet preliminary release of mortgage approvals, an important gauge for the housing sector and for the whole economy. Last month saw stability – a slide from 48K to 47K exactly as expected. No big change is likely now, perhaps a drop to 46K.
- Public Sector Net Borrowing: Published Tuesday, 8:30. The new British government vowed to fight public debt with a series of budget cuts. Last month already saw some results, with public lending dropping from 13.9 to 3.2 billion. If borrowing is negative – meaning that a public surplus, the Pound will rock. Current expectations stand on a rising deficit – 12.3 billion.
- MPC Meeting Minutes: Published Wednesday, 8:30. The last rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee didn’t bring any news – the rate remained at 0.50%. But inflation refuses to fully return into the 1-3% target. It will be interesting to see if there’s still one member, Andrew Sentance, that wants a rate hike. If Sentance aligns with the others, the Pound will weaken. If he was joined by others, it will rise.
- Inflation Report Hearings: Happens on Wednesday. Delayed from lat week, this event always brings action. Mervyn King, the head of the BoE, and usually more of his colleagues, testify in parliament about the inflation and also the state of the economy. The comments always create hours of action. King is usually pessimistic and brings the Pound down.
- BBA Mortgage Approvals: Published Thursday. The British Bankers’ Association represents about two thirds of all British mortgages. While released after the official preliminary release of approvals, this indicator always rocks the markets. A stable figure is due now.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Pound had a poor beginning to the weak, dropping to the 1.5350 support line (mentioned in last week’s outlook). It then moved up, struggling with 1.5480 and then with 1.5520 before rising up to the strong resistance line of 1.5720. It eventually closed lower, at 1.5631.
GBP/USD is now between the 1.5530 line, which capped the pair in April and in August, and 1.5650, which provided strong resistance in the past week.
Looking up, the 1.5720 line, which also had a role back in 2009, is now a strong resistance line.
Above, 15833 held the pair before it dropped at the beginning of the year and later worked as support. It also supported the pair in August. Even higher, August’s peak at 1.60 is the final resistance line for now.
Looking down, 1.5480 continues to provide minor support. It capped the pair on its way up in July and in August. Lower, the 1.5350, which capped the pair in March and supported it during September proved to be a very strong line once again.
Lower, 1.5230 resisted the Pound’s rise in July, and now works as support. It’s followed by 1.5220, which supported the pair in July as well.
I remain bearish on GBP/USD.
Britain’s fundamentals, and especially unemployment could provide downwards pressure on the Pound.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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