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  • Weakness in U.S. dollar underpins gold at 1,791 level.
  • Core Durable Goods Orders for June declined to 0.3% against the forecasted 0.8%. It weighed on the U.S. dollar that lifted yellow metal higher.
  • Gold bullish mode persists above 1,800 levels today with a target of 1,810 and 1,817.

Gold closed at $1799.75 after placing a high of $1,805.30 and a low of $1792.85. The precious metal prices stayed below the $1,800 on Tuesday as traders maintained a cautious position ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting. Traders awaited the clues about tightening monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Gold price forecast remains bullish as metal failed to break below the $1,791 level.

Weakness in U.S. Dollar Underpins Gold at 1,791 Level  

On Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies dropped to 92.32 level. It’s the lowest since July 15 and weighed on the greenback. The greenback was vulnerable across the board as it fell for the 2nd consecutive session amid the cautious behavior of investors.

The U.S. Treasury Yield on benchmark 10-year note also fell on Tuesday and dropped by almost 5% on the day to 1.229%. Thus, adding weight on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward trend in yellow metal on Tuesday.

The rising number of coronavirus cases in the United States seems to be the reason behind the strict policy of the Federal Reserve. The Fed was not changing its outlook and rate policy because of the increased coronavirus cases in the United States.

Quick Update on U.S. Economic Figures  

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Core Durable Goods Orders for June declined to 0.3% against the forecasted 0.8%. It weighed on the U.S. dollar that lifted yellow metal higher.

The Durable Goods Orders were also reduced to 0.8% against the projected 2.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 18:00 GMT, the HPI for May surged to 1.7% against the expected 1.6% and capped further gains in gold prices.

The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year rose to 17.0% against the predicted 16.1% and supported the U.S. dollar, limiting the rising prices of gold.

At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for July surged to 27 against the estimated 20. At 19:00 GMT, the CB Consumer Confidence for July advanced to 129.1 against the projected 123.9, and it limited the upward momentum in gold.    

Gold Standstill Amid U.S. Fed Policy Meeting

Investors were cautiously waiting for the Fed’s response to the new threats. The threats posed by the rising number of coronavirus cases via Delta variant of the virus. That along with the fast-rising prices throughout the country.

The Fed meeting started on Tuesday, but a policy statement will be issued on Wednesday and the news conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

In the meantime, the investors will also be looking closely at the developments surrounding the coronavirus, risk sentiment, the U.S. bond yields, and the price dynamics of the U.S dollar for grabbing some short-term opportunities.

Gold XAU/USD Forecast – Technical Levels: Key Support at $1,791

Gold Price Forecast
Gold – XAU/USD- Daily Chart

Support Resistance

1793.30 1805.75

1786.85 1811.75

1780.85 1818.20

Pivot Point: 1799.30

Gold XAU/USD Forecast – Daily Technical Analysis: Upward Trendline to Drive Bulls  

Gold price forecast remains bullish above the $1,799 support level. Overall, the technical side of the gold hasn’t changed much, and it’s consistent with our  Gold Price Forecast, July 27, 2021.

On the daily timeframe, gold has closed a Doji candle over the double bottom support level of $1,791. The closing of the Doji candle demonstrates weakness in the selling trend, supporting the bullish trend in gold.  

On the higher side, the yellow metal may find resistance at 1,835 level, but there’s one thing, bulls have to face the 50 periods EMA.    

The 50 periods EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Red Line) will be extending resistance at 1,808 levels. The bullish violation of this level can lead gold prices further higher, towards 1,835.    

The oscillator indicator Stochastic is holding in an oversold zone at 9.08, demonstrating sellers may get exhausted. Thus, the bulls have a chance to take control and push gold prices higher.  

Forex trading  market participants will want to stay in a bullish mode above 1,800 levels today, targeting 1,810 and 1,817. Alternatively, closing below 1,800 can lead the gold price towards 1,795 and 1,784 levels. All the best!

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