- The XAU/USD reached a dynamic resistance and could now drop again.
- Poor US data could boost the yellow metal.
- Gold should extend its sideways movement in the short term.
The gold price rallied today, wobbling below today’s high of $2003. Investors await key US GDP data, keeping the market stagnant.
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XAU/USD retreated a little yesterday as the Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders, and Core Durable Goods Orders came in better than expected. In contrast, Prelim Wholesale Inventories came in line with expectations.
Today, the US Advance GDP is expected to report a 2.0% growth versus the 2.6% growth in the previous reporting period. This is seen as a high-impact event and should bring sharp movements later. Positive data could help the greenback to appreciate versus its rivals. On the contrary, worse-than-expected figures should boost the yellow metal.
Furthermore, the US Unemployment Claims are expected at 247K versus 245K in the previous reporting period. Advance GDP Price Index may report a 3.7% growth, while Pending Home Sales could register a 0.6% growth.
Tomorrow, the BOJ, German Prelim CPI, Canadian GDP, and the US Core PCE Price Index and Employment Cost represent high impact-events.
Gold price technical analysis: Exhausted buyers
Technically, gold reached the descending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml), representing a dynamic resistance. The price turned to the downside after testing this obstacle in the past. Retesting this obstacle and registering only false breakouts may announce a new sell-off.
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Still, the US data could bring sharp movements in both directions. That’s why we need to be careful. As you can see from the hourly chart, the price moves sideways between 1,969 and 2,015 in the short term.
I expect the XAU/USD to extend its range in the next few days. From the technical point of view, staying near the upper median line (UML) may announce an imminent breakout.
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