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  • US reports show home sales increase by 1.4 percent every month.
  • The UoM (University of Michigan’s) initial Consumer Sentiment Index for July demonstrates a negative shift in consumer sentiment and a sharp rise in inflation expectation.
  • The technical outlook of Gold remains neutral with a bearish bias as the price remains near the low limit of the weekly consolidation channel.

The gold weekly forecast is slightly bearish as bulls struggle to sustain beyond the 1800 mark. Winning streak in the following four weeks, the gold price competes to move in either direction and swing between key technical levels. On Tuesday, after rising above 1,820, Gold turned south in the second half of the week but tackled to close the week a little above the key 100-day SMA, which is currently located at 1,796.  

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What happened to gold last week?

Lacking high-tier macroeconomic data releases and basic developments, risk perception remains the primary market mover in the last week. However, the sharp turn down witnessed in Wall Street’s main indexes on Monday and Tuesday allowed Greenback to find the demand. Somehow, gold also capitalized on the risk-off flows, indicating that precious metal is looking to get back its safe-haven status.  

On Thursday, the US department of labor published a report of 419,000 claims for unemployment benefits in the US during this week by the end of 17 July. The figure came worse than the market expectations of 350,000 but was largely avoided by the market participants. On the other hand, the US showed that existing home sales rose by 1.4 percent every month while the national median home price for the existing homes rose by 23.4 percent from June 2020 to 363,000.

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What’s next to watch for gold?

The economic calendar shows that next week will be a little bit busy. On Tuesday, June, Durable Goods will be released along with the Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence index. In addition, the UoM (University of Michigan’s) initial Consumer Sentiment Index for July demonstrates a negative shift in consumer sentiment and a sharp rise in inflation expectation. The same picture in the CB report is likely to provide bids to USD.  Furthermore, Fed’s interest rate decision and statement can trigger volatility in the gold.  

NZD/USD weekly outlook news NZD/USD weekly outlook news

Gold weekly technical: Bears to press further

The technical outlook of gold remains neutral with a bearish bias as the price remains near the lower limit of the weekly consolidation channel. Besides RSI (Relative Strength Index), indicators on the daily chart fall back below 50, recommending that buyers try to remain in control.

Nevertheless, sellers could hold up for XAU/USD to make a daily close below 1796 (100-day SMA) before looking to incline the bearish pressure. Below that level, 1790 lines up as support ahead of 1775.

On the other hand, 200-SMA seems to have established a tough resistance in 1820. If buyers increase the price above the resistance level, 1830 and 1835 (50-day SMA) might seem like the next target.

Gold weekly forecast on daily chart
Gold weekly forecast on daily chart

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