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More  opinion polls are published in Greece and they show momentum for opposition anti-bailout / anti-austerity SYRIZA over incumbent New Democracy.  The polls that do show seats in parliament show  SYRUZA with 147 out of 300 seats – 4 short of an absolute majority.  If the trend continues, reaching the magic 151 may be at hand.

It already seems that Europe is getting ready to deal with  Alexis Tsipras  instead of campaigning for  incumbent Antonis Samaras.

250 seats are divided proportionally with a 3% threshold. 50 bonus seats are given to the winning part. Here is the recent polling  data.

  • GPO shows Syriza with 34.7% against 30.1% for New Democracy: 4.6% lead.
  • V-Politis: 35.5% against 30.8%, 4.7% lead.
  • PAMAK: 36.5% against 29.5%, 7% lead.
  • Metrisi: 35.1% against 32.7%, 2.4% lead
  • E-Voice: 33.9% against 30.6%, 3.3% lead.
  • Alco: 37.2% against 32%, 5.2% lead. In parliament: 147 against 86.
  • Metron Analysis: 35.4% against 30.8%, 4.6% lead. In parliament: 147 against 85. The previous Metron  poll showed 144:82.  

So far, there has been only one poll showing an absolute  majority for SYRIZA. The question is: are we seeing a trend? Are  undecided voters breaking towards the opposition?

European reactions

A few weeks ago, Der Spiegel reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel was willing to accept a Greek exit from the euro-zone. This seemed like a move to pressure Greeks not to vote for SYRIZA.

Things have changed since then: French finance minister Sapin said that France is open to negotiations with Greece.

These are only two reactions. Countries usually try not  intervene, at least not too much in internal matters of other countries. So perhaps it is too anecdotal, but perhaps the EU is already accepting a SYRIZA victory and thinking about the aftermath.

In the meantime, there is some fear and some money is flowing out:  7 billion have been withdrawn so far, and more numbers