Most opinion polls leading into the Greek elections show a small lead for opposition party SYRIZA over the current leading party New Democracy. These polls give SYRIZA around 140-146 seats in parliament, short of the 151 needed for an absolute majority needed to control the 300 seat chamber.
But, one poll made from “Public Issue” and concluded in recent days shows SYRIZA ahead with 151 seats. Is this an outlier that does not reflect voter intentions? Or is SYRIZA strengthening its base after seeing its lead narrow down beforehand?
The poll gives SYRIZA 38% and New Democracy 30%. The 8% lead is higher than the 4-5% that the party receives in other polls. This specific poll was conducted between January 2nd and January 9th.
One of the reasons that could strengthen SYRIZA is the report that Germany is willing to negotiate Greece’s debt, coming after reports that Greece is not systematically important.
It is important to note that even if SYRIZA wins and Alexis Tsipras becomes Prime Minister, it does necessarily imply a “Grexit” – it is more likely than not that the new government will talk with its creditors and a compromise will be reached.