Greenback comeback on great data – EUR/USD falls back to

Excellent data from the US gave the greenback a chance for a comeback.

ADP Non-Farm Payrolls came out at a whopping 246K. This is far better than 165K expected and the  151K level seen in January. The massive growth in private sector jobs will likely be  seen also in the official Non-Farm Payrolls report from the BLS on Friday, albeit perhaps not at the same magnitude.

Jobs were humming along quite nicely during 2016 but slowed down towards the end of the year. With the  accelerated rise in wage growth, this  served as an indication that the US economy was nearing full employment. Fewer people available for hiring meant rising wages for existing ones. The ongoing growth in jobs can be attributed to the Obama  administration.

The second positive surprise came from the ISM Manufacturing PMI. This report  resulted in a score of 56 points, better than 55 that was forecast and 54.7 for December. The optimism about the manufacturing sector can be  attached to the hope that the new Trump administration will revive US manufacturing jobs.

The employment, prices and new orders components of the ISM report were upbeat as well. Also here, we find hints of underlying inflation, something that will feed into the upcoming Fed decisions. The first one comes out today.

Stronger dollar

The stronger US dollar was felt among quite a few currencies, especially those that have recently appreciated against the greenback, such as the euro and the yen, as well as commodity currencies.

EUR/USD found it hard to break above  the round level of 1.08 but did manage to hold  support at 1.0780. Until it didn’t.

EUR/USD is back to the previous range. Support awaits at the veteran line of 1.0710,  followed by 1.0650 and 1.0620.

The Fed decision is the next  event on the agenda. They are unlikely to rock the boat too much.

More:  USD Into FOMC: Looking For A ‘Reprieve’ For USD? – BofA Merrill