The Canadian dollar was on the fall during long days. The title “the lowest since 2009” accompanied the C$ almost on a daily basis, as the price of oil, a major Canadian export, dropped.
The latest high for USD/CAD is 1.1668. Can this be the top? Here are 3 reasons to think so:
- Stabilization in the price of oil: While it is hard to fall a catching knife and even harder with slippery oil, we have seen some kind of bounce: Brent has come back above $60 and WTI Crude above $55. These are low levels that nobody imagined not so long ago. No, OPEC didn’t changed its mind. All we are hearing from the UAE and Kuwait is calm, but it is important to remember that the price of oil can correct itself via basic swings of supply and demand. We have already seen the Russian ruble bounce sharply from the lows.
- Strong Canadian data: It is important to remember that Canada is not only about oil and that the country has good fundamentals. Yet again, we have learned that there is foreign interest: the level of foreign securities purchases climbed to 9.53 billion, much higher than 5.21 expected. Canada is not Russia.
- US strength: The Canadian economy depends on its southern neighbor much more than on oil. While the American road to recovery is long, slow and bumpy, the world’s largest economy continues experiencing growth. We have seen stable housing numbers, a strong industrial output figure and beforehand upbeat retail sales numbers as the holiday shopping season reaches its peak. A strong US means a strong Canada and eventually a recovering C$.
In the meantime, we only have a minor correction in USD/CAD: a drop from the highs to 1.1630 at the time of writing. However, we may have seen the peak. What do you think?
Tomorrow we have Canadian wholesale sales and US inflation numbers for November. More importantly the US Federal Reserve convenes to deliver its rate decision.
More: CAD: Loonie Taking Notes From Nokkie; What’s Next? – CIBC
And here is the chart:
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