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As leaders begin pre-summit meetings towards tomorrow’s big summit, the situation looks bad. The refusal of the ECB to accept more bond buying or support a circular move through the IMF is the main drag, but not the only one.  

Are expectations lowered in order to create more pressure and eventually come out with a positive result? Germany wants strict budget rules to be adopted. In the meantime, the euro continues falling. Updates.

  • Draghi drags the euro down: The ECB lowered the rates and announced significant measures to help the banks. But on the other hand, ECB president Mario Draghi said that no bigger bond buying was on the agenda, that governments must do their job and that bypassing the treaty and using the IMF would be a nice trick, but would “violate the spirit of the treaty” and is off the agenda as well.
  • Finland: The country that demanded collateral from Greece presents a new demand: a Finish parliament committee says bailouts MUST include private sector involvement. This doesn’t help the negotiations.
  • Luxembourg opposes Merkozy agreement: Luxembourg is a small country that does comply with the Maastricht treaty. Also here, this doesn’t help negotiations.
  • Germany plays down expectations. Contrary to previous events, Europe’s largest country says that a “grand deal” isn’t to be expected. Merkel and Sarkozy announced a deal only on Monday. Is this lost now?

EUR/USD lost the 1.3320 line that served as support in previous weeks, extending the fall that began during the ECB press conference. Further support is at 1.3260, with more important support at 1.3212 and 1.3145. On the upside, 1.3320 is now weak resistance, with 1.3360 being of higher importance. For more on the pair, see the EUR/USD forecast.

Finland and Luxembourg definitely stand behind their words and deeds. But is Germany lowering expectations to create a positive surprise?

And more importantly: is the ECB denying QE in order to pressure governments to agree to more strict rules?  

In a speech last week, Draghi hinted that with the right conditions, the ECB could take an extra step and enhance bond buying, some sort of QE. He clearly rejected it in the presser, over and over again.

This could be a means of pressure to get the governments into submission to strict rules and sanctions, if they break the rules.

Slovakia already took one step forward, and approved a constitutional debt ceiling law, similar to a move made by Spain earlier in the year. Is Draghi adding to pressure in order to make the happen?

We will know quite soon. In the meantime, the euro continues lower. And not only the euro falls – also Italian bonds. Ten year yields of the euro-zone’s third largest country are soaring once again by more than 8% to 6.50%. This is unsustainable. Will Italy do something?

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