US Non-Farm Payrolls rose by a great 244K, defeating the bad signs seen before the release and the official expectations . A gain of 185K was expected. The unemployment rate rose to 9%. An unchanged rate of 8.8% was predicted, so this is a small disappointment. Roller coaster reaction sees the dollar gain across the board, and then fall against against everyone except the yen. EUR/USD fell to support and now bounces very strongly. “Safe haven” currencies are falling in an unsafe way, but the Swissy recovered. Only the yen is left behind.
Last update: 13:44 GMT.
EUR/USD bounces from support: It dipped to 1.4480 and jumped to 1.4520 but is now at 1.4460, above the 1.4450 support line. Other currencies also move strongly in both directions.
Update: EUR/USD back up above 1.45 – risk appetite may be reaching the common currency that is now moving above minor resistance at 1.4520, and all the way to 1.4560 – back to the morning’s range. It’s now easing again, but remaining above 1.4520 support. And now losing support, and moving towards 1.45. EUR/USD rocks strongly while most other pairs are more stable now, more than one hour after the release.
Risk aversion down: The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen fell against the greenback with a gap. These safe haven currencies retreat as risk appetite returns – a stronger US economy means that low yielding currencies are unattractive.
Update: USD/JPY and USD/CHF are still higher before the release – the “safe” currencies are still weaker, but less than earlier. They begin stabilizing.
Risk appetite for Aussie and CAD: The Australian dollar waited at first, but is now rising on risk appetite. USD/CAD is falling. In the case of the Canadian dollar, there are two more factors: first, the Canadian economy enjoys a stronger US one – it’s their main trade partner. Secondly, Canadian job figures released just 90 minutes before the American ones were superb. Aussie gains stabilizing, USD/CAD still choppy.
Oil is rising – the price of oil, which plunged yesterday from above $110 to around $96 is now scrapping the round number of $100 once again.
Regarding the unemployment rate, the writing was on the wall. In the past three weeks, weekly jobless claims surged – they left the low range of around 380-390K and took bit steps up, hitting 474K in the past week, back to the ugly 430K-500K range. This is seen in the higher unemployment rate. Also the “real unemployment rate”, U-6, including also discouraged people, rose back up after a few good months, from 15.7% to 15.9%.
But the gain in jobs is a complete surprise: The change in the number of jobs also had early indicators – the purchasing managers’ index for the services sector (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) dropped significantly, pointing to a severe slowdown. This sector, about three quarters of the US economy, has seen a drop in the employment component. Also the other sector, manufacturing, that didn’t see a big drop, reflected a problem with jobs in the employment component. And the very related ADP NFP for the private sector also disappointed.
Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.1%, lower than a rise of 0.2% – this adds to Bernanke’s view that inflation is transitory – no second round effects are seen.
The dollar made a major rally yesterday, especially against the Euro, as Jean-Claude Trichet hinted a delay in rate hikes and expressed concern about a weak dollar. This turnaround in the dollar’s fate is now taking more ground.
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