Article 50 of the European Treaty triggers fear among British policymakers. It seems that nobody wants to touch it with a barge pole. Will the Bregret turn into a Bremain instead of Brexit?
David Cameron quickly quit on Friday after the official Brexit and also refrained from committing to pulling the trigger on the Brexit. He said it will up to the next government to do so. Boris Johnson, the lead Leave candidate, did not seem joyful in his public appearance. His face seemed gloomy like Cameron’s and not happy like Farage’s.
So, the Tory party is in no rush to do so and neither are Labour. They are torn in their own civil war with an upcoming vote of confidence on Corbyn’s leadership. The smaller LibDems are united against Brexit.
Does parliament pull the Brexit trigger?
Another layer of complication comes from legal opinion on who should actually trigger this exit move. According to Nick Barber, Tom Hickman and Jeff King, parliament has the power to make the move, not the government. And in the parliament, the pro-Remain camp has an overwhelming majority: most Labour members, all LibDems and most Tories are against Brexit.
So, in case it reaches parliament, will MPs vote according to the will of the people and according to the referendum for something they are clearly against?
Or will they vote according to their conscience, “doing the right thing for the country” but betraying voters and undermining democracy?
If it reaches parliament, uncertainty will further rise.
New elections
In a debate in the same parliament, Cameron did not rule out fresh elections. Like with Article 50, he leaves it to the new government to decide. The new leader, probably Boris Johnson might understand he does not have enough support for a stable rule and go to the polls.
What happens if the new government is formed out of parties supporting remaining in the EU? Will the result of new elections mean substitute the vote in the EU Referendum?
EU elevating the pressure
And the EU is not helping either: Germany made it clear there will be no informal negotiations prior to invoking Article 50. France urges Britain to end uncertainty. And now there are reports that the EU “would welcome Scotland as the 28th member”. Currently there are 28 members, so Scotland would basically replace the UK according to their count. But will Catalonia be the 29th?
The EU is not one unit but there is a tendency to try to contain the crisis: not to allow other countries to follow Britain’s path and leave. The praises for Brexit from far-right parties in France, the Netherland and elsewhere are causing a headahce in Brussels.
Breamin = Big pound bounce
There are many open questions. Markets are currently pricing in a Brexit, with the pound plunging to new lows, assuming the deal is done.
However, if there are more voices suggesting that Bremain is still possible despite the clear result, we may see a huge bounce in the pound.
What do you think?
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