The kiwi has local reasons to rise, but this time it just rides on the greenback’s weakness.
NZD/USD is trading at 0.8775, a clear and convincing break above the previous high of 0.8745. It is now less than 100 from the ultimate float era high. Will the job numbers from New Zealand enable it to move higher or will they serve as an opportunity to take profits?
Here is how this looks on the weekly chart:
We can see how the pair broke above the previous high of 0.8745 reached a few months ago. The line is only minor support at the moment. More serious support is at 0.8670.
On the upside, the key line is the August 2011 high of 0.8842. This is the highest level since NZD began floating freely. The round number of 0.88 could also serve as a hurdle. More levels are in the weekly NZDUSD prediction.
The New Zealand dollar is now facing important data: quarterly employment figures from New Zealand, for Q1 2014. The quarterly release, which differs from other countries, makes the publication even more important.
Last quarter, the figures were outstanding and sent the kiwi higher. The fall to 6% in the unemployment rate came on top of a rise in the participation rate, something that the US can envy.
This time, expectations are very high: a drop of the unemployment rate to 5.8% accompanied with a rise of 0.7% in employment in general.
At these high levels and together with such high hopes, it will be hard for the kiwi to continue too far, especially with the 0.8842 peak looming. So, a “within expectations” outcome could trigger a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction. A drop of the unemployment rate to 5.6% or lower would probably be needed for a historic move higher for NZD/USD.
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