The New Zealand dollar struggled to gain ground as commodity currencies suffered in general. Two events are scheduled for the last week of March. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
Milk prices advanced in the second auction in a row, rising by 1.6%, but this is a slow recovery after the big falls seen beforehand. The NZIER Business Confidence dropped to 17 points and also failed to help the kiwi. In the US, data was quite mixed.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”NZDUSDUpdate”/]NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 22:30. This PMI-like indicator bounced back to 55.2 points and remains in growth territory, above 50 points.
- FPI: Wednesday, 22:45. The Food Price Index plays second fiddle to the GDT Dairy Trade but still carries some weight. It advanced by 0.2% in February and a similar figure is likely for March.
* All times are GMT
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Once again, kiwi/dollar hugged the 0.70 level (mentioned last week).
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
0.7380 was the high recorded back in February and is our top line for now. Below, we find 0.7250, which capped the pair back twice in mid-February and serves as a double top.
0.7160, which capped the pair back in November is a pivotal line within the range. 0.7125 had worked as a double bottom before it collapsed in early March.
0.7050 served as resistance during the month of March. The very round number of 0.70 is a battle zone. Further below, 0.6960 worked as support in November and then in January once again.
Further below, 0.6960 worked as support in November and then in January once again. The round number of 0.69 is weak support, and it is followed by 0.6865.
I am neutral on NZD/USD
Recent New Zealand data has been mixed, with milk prices not being convincing enough. In the US, the greenback lost momentum but has not given up, at least not against commodity currencies.
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