The New Zealand dollar made an attempt to move higher, but was unable to sustain the gains. It now faces a very busy week, with the GDP and current account reports standing out. Here is an outlook for the events moving the kiwi, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
The RBNZ left the interest rates unchanged and left the hawkish bias intact. It is certainly understandable as the economy continues thriving: manufacturing sales rose by 4.7%, house prices are on the rise and manufacturers remain optimistic. In the US, QE tapering seems closer after politicians removed some of the uncertainty. Which force will prevail? The strong economy in New Zealand or the stronger USD?
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”NZDUSDUpdate”/]NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Sunday, 21:00. This quarterly report carries significant weight, coming from a big bank. Since Q3 2012, the indicator has been positive, above 100 points. Consumer optimism is expected to continue also in Q4 2013, rising from 115.4 seen in Q3.
- Current Account: Tuesday, 21:45. After New Zealand enjoyed a smaller than expected trade balance deficit, expectations are higher for the wider current account number for Q3 2013. In the second quarter, the deficit rose to 1.25 billion, but that was below expectations. A smaller deficit is expected now.
- ANZ Business Confidence: Wednesday, 00:00. After a consumer survey is published earlier in the week, this wide business survey of 1500 businesses has an even bigger impact. The indicator has been positive in the past 4.5 years, climbing gradually to 60.4 recorded in November. From this level, a small drop would not be unexpected.
- GDP: Wednesday, 21:45. This is naturally the biggest release of the week. New Zealand publishes GDP figures only once, without revisions. Q2 saw a moderate, yet expected growth rate of 0.2%. In Q3, an acceleration of economic activity is highly likely. The outcome here could significantly impact the NZD and the next rate decision of the RBNZ.
- Visitor Arrivals: 21:45. Tourism is a significant part of the economy in Aotearoa (New Zealand’s native name), making visitor arrivals meaningful for currencies. New Zealand experienced a drop of 2.1% in arrivals back in October. A rise is expected now as the spring began.
- Credit Card Spending: Friday, 2:00. The usage of credit cards is widespread in New Zealand and this gauge provides an indication of consumer spending. A rise of 3.2% was seen in October, and a similar figure is predicted now.
* All times are GMT.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
NZD/$ started the week with a move higher to challenge the 0.8335 line (joins our chart and didn’t appear last week). It then changed course and found support at the round 0.82 level.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
0.8435 was the peak in September – a peak that triggered a big downfall. After it was broken again, the line switched to support. It is a clear separator. The round number of 0.84 is another line of resistance after capping the pair in September and in November.
0.8335 capped a move higher in December and also had a role in the past. Below, 0.8270 provided some support during October, and it also worked as resistance in March.
0.82, worked as support several times: in September, October and also in December. Close by, 0.8150 capped the pair in August and worked as support in March.
The round number of 0.81 worked as resistance in July. Lower, 0.8050 was a peak back in June and works as support before the very round number of 0.80.
Below 0.80, we find another round number: 0.79. This level was a pivotal line several times in the past. 0.7840 worked as resistance when the pair traded in lower ground earlier in the year.
I turn from bullish to neutral on NZD/USD
While the long term direction of the kiwi is up due to expected rate hikes, QE tapering in the US, or significant hints towards it could certainly boost the US dollar, and NZD could find it hard to advance. A strong GDP figure would be sufficient to keep the kiwi’s ground. If GDP isn’t that strong, the currency could surrender to the USD.
More: 5 reasons for QE tapering
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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