NZD/USD Forecast Jan. 12-16 2015

The  New Zealand dollar  had a very positive week, climbing back up and the full range as milk prices rose for the second time in a row. Can it break out of range?  Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

Prices of dairy products rose for the second consecutive time, bucking the trend of commodity prices. The 3.6% rise, together with a leap in building consents, sent the kiwi higher. In the US, we had a mixed jobs report, which showed strong gains in jobs but a drop in wages. What’s next for the pair?

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NZD/USD  daily chart    with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. REINZ HPI: Publication time unknown at the moment. This house prices index showed a rise of 3.3% in prices. The housing market is still strong. A more moderate rise is on the cards this time.
2. FPI: Wednesday, 21:45. The Food Price Index is important for New Zealand, which exports food, but it is overshadowed by the GDT Price Index. A drop of 0.5% was seen last time, and a similar number could be seen now.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar started the week with a slide to the 0.7615 line (mentioned last week), but from there it was all uphill. The pair stopped at the 0.7850 line, and certainly played by the book.

Live chart of NZD/USD:

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Technical lines, from top to bottom:

The round level of 0.82 is certainly worth watching. It is followed by the  initial September low of 0.8120.

0.8075 was one of the cycle  lows and now works as resistance.  Even lower, 0.8050 provided support for the pair back in February and is the last line before the very round figure of 0.80.

0.80 is now key resistance on the upside. Just below, the old  resistance line of 0.7975 is coming back to play after capping the pair in October.

0.7930 was a double top in October’s recovery and is important to watch. It is followed by 0.7850.

0.78 is a round number and provided support various times, including recently. Going deeper, 0.7765 worked as support, and is a line to watch now on the way up.

0.7715 is stronger support after serving holding the pair in December.  0.7680 worked as support in December and that is where the pair stopped in early  January 2015.

Below this point, we are back to levels last seen in 2012: 0.7615 is initial support and the critical line is 0.7460.

Further support is found at 0.7370, followed by the round number of 0.72.

Wide  downtrend channel maintained

As the thick black lines show, the pair is trading within a wide channel that is heading down. The bottom of the channel was tested in December and held up very well.

I am bullish  on  NZD/USD

Milk prices support a stronger kiwi, while the lack of wage rises  could weigh on the US dollar in the short term.

 

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.