The New Zealand dollar traded in range during the first week of 2017. Yet again, we have a single event on the calendar. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
- Jan 13, 16:00: US consumer confidence at 98.1 – a small miss, but: US consumer confidence slides to 98.1 points, 0.4 below expectations and 0.1 under December’s number. One year inflation expectations are up...
- Jan 13, 14:30: US retail sales disappoint with 0.6% but USD bounces: Headline retail sales miss with a rise of only 0.6% but core retail sales provide a bigger shortfall with 0.2%....
- Jan 11, 17:15: Donald downs the dollar – as it happened: President-Elect Donald Trump met the press for the first time since July and the first time since the victory in...
- Jan 11, 12:30: Technical levels for majors and crosses- second week of: Ahead of Trump’s important press conference and the big releases ahead, the videos below provide an outlook for the technical lines that should be...
- Jan 9, 12:12: Is the FED Data or Donald Dependent? – MM #129: Our first episode of 2017 focuses on the US: we begin from the data, with the NFP, and continue with...
NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- ANZ Commodity Prices: Thursday, 00:00. The commercial bank’s measure of commodity prices jumped by 2.7% back in November. A more moderate number is likely now. Note that while New Zealand exports quite a few commodities, dairy products have the upper hand.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/dollar settled under the 0.70 level in the holiday week, after suffering beforehand from the Fed’s might.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
The round number of 0.74 served as resistance and support back in 2015. 0.7330 was an initial high in 2016.
0.7265 was a swing high in October 2016 and works as resistance. 0.7230 served as support in September 2016.
0.7160 is a pivotal line within the range. 0.7140 worked in both directions in the past months.
0.71, a round number, was a double bottom in October. 0.7075 was a swing low in August and had a role afterward as well. It is followed by 0.7035, the low seen in October 2016.
The round level of 0.70 is still important because of its roundness but it isn’t really strong. The low of 0.6940 allowed for a temporary bounce.
I am bearish on NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar lost the momentum due to the fall in milk prices.
Our latest podcast is titled Is the FED Data or Donald Dependent?
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