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The  New Zealand dollar   managed to tick higher in a week that saw USD strength. Is this a bullish sign? The calendar begins warming up in the first full week of 2014. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The end of 2013 was characterized with a weakening of the US dollar, and the opening of 2014 with a resurgence of the greenback. Nevertheless, NZD/USD enjoyed late gains and closed the week on higher ground, breaking 3 weeks of losses.

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NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

NZDUSD Technical Analysis January 6 10 2014 fundamental outlook and sentiment

  1. Building Consents: Wednesday, 21:45. The housing sector is one of the drivers of the economy, with some even fearing a bubble in Auckland. The number of building approvals has risen in the previous two months, but a drop is expected for November.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

NZD/$ started the week with a rise from the lows seen in the previous week, but it began falling again. The pair eventually found support at 0.8135 and shot up from there, finally closing at 0.8271.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

0.8435 was the peak in September – a peak that triggered a big downfall. After it was broken again, the line switched to support. It is a clear separator. The round number of 0.84 is another line of resistance after capping the pair in September and in November.

0.8335 capped a move higher in December and also had a role in the past. The pair fell short of this line in January 2014. Below, 0.8290 capped the pair several times during December and now works as a key line to the upside.

0.82, worked as support several times: in September, October and also in December. It is somewhat weaker now. Close by, 0.8150 capped the pair in August and worked as support in March.

The round number of 0.81 worked as resistance in July.  Lower, 0.8135 provided support for the pair in January 2014.

Below 0.80, we find another round number: 0.79. This level was a pivotal line several times in the past. 0.7840 worked as resistance when the pair traded in lower ground earlier in the year.

I am bullish on NZD/USD

 The New Zealand economy is looking good and the pair certainly has a potential to rise in 2014. Unless the US Non-Farm Payrolls provides a huge positive surprise, the pair can continue its move up.

More:  FX Outlook 2014 – Conditional Dollar Strength

Further reading: