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The  New Zealand dollar  .was certainly affected by the central banks, the local one and the US one in a busy week and lost a lot of ground. The action continues with quarterly employment data as well as other events. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

It all seemed rosy for the kiwi at first, but things turned negative quite quickly.  The RBNZ pushed the kiwi lower by opening  a crack for potential rate cuts and complaining about the strength of the kiwi, as usual. This continued the trend already seen beforehand. In the US, poor GDP data was countered by a relatively optimistic Fed and a greenback comeback.

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NZD/USD  daily chart    with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

NZDUSD May 4 8 2015 technical analysis New Zealand dollar fundamental outlook and sentiment

  1. ANZ Commodity Prices: Monday, 1:00. New Zealand exports commodities, mostly agricultural and mostly dairy products, which set the tone.  Nevertheless, this indicator early in the week also has an impact. It advanced 4.6% y/y in  March and a similar figure is expected now.
  2. GDT Price Index: Tuesday. This bi-weekly measure of dairy product prices is quite volatile, but is closely watched. After long weeks of rises, the auction dropped 3 times in a row. After the 3.6% fall last time, a rise is on the cards.
  3. Employment data: Tuesday, 22:45. New Zealand releases jobs data only once per quarter, making the publication stronger than in other countries. The labor market is doing well in New Zealand with  unemployment standing at 5.7% in Q4 2014 and with a rise of 1.2% in employment. A more moderate rise in jobs is predicted, +0.8%,  but with  good news expected from the unemployment rate: a drop to 5.5%. The labor cost index is predicted to rise by 0.4%.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar  started the week on a positive note, enjoying the weakness of the US dollar. It hit 0.7740, which turns out to be strong resistance. The pair then turned south and  found support at the 0.75 line (mentioned last week).

Live chart of NZD/USD:

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Technical lines, from top to bottom:

The very round level of 0.80 looms above, but is closely followed by 0.7975, which played a role in the past. 0.7850  is the next important level after caping the pair in December.

The round level of 0.78 played a role in the past and is high resistance. 0.7740, which was the peak in April 2015 is now important resistance.

The round level of 0.77 proved its strength in March 2015 and capped the kiwi’s ascent. Below, 0.7665 is lower resistance, after having this role in December.

0.7615 now works as resistance after providing support during January 2015. It is followed closely by 0.7585 which capped the pair on an initial recovery attempt. Another line to watch out for is 0.7550, which separated ranges in March 2015.

The very round  number of 0.75 capped the pair just before the big fall and serves as strong resistance. It is followed by 0.7450 that had a role in the past.

The next line is 0.7370, which was a low point in 2011. It is followed by 0.7325, which capped the pair in the middle of 2010.

The recent 2015 low of 0.7235 is  now the next  support line. It is followed by 0.7180 that served as resistance back in 2010.

I am bearish on  NZD/USD

It seems that the RBNZ is weighing heavily on the kiwi and this isn’t going to go away. In addition, a positive turn in US data could certainly help.

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Further reading: