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NZIER Business Confidence is the main market mover of this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for MZD/USD.

A sharp rise in global food prices announced on Jan 6 by the UN will boost New Zealand’s weak economy and raise the Kiwi since New Zealand is an agricultural exporting country. Will this recover New Zealand’s economy in 2011?

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Let’s start:

  1. Trade Balance: Sunday: 21:45. Trade balance deficit narrowed to -319.00M, from -457.00M in the preceding while expecting 416.00M. Higher export prices and volumes improved the reading. Meanwhile, imports have increased in line with gradually strengthening domestic demand. Deficit is expected to contract to 151.00M this week.
  2. NZIER Business Confidence: Monday: 21:00. New Zealand business confidence fell in the three months to September to 6 reading following 18 gain in the previous quarter. Firms were less optimistic about the economy.
  3. Building Consents: Monday, 21:45. The number of new buildings fell a seasonally adjusted 2.0% to 1154 in October following 0.2% increase a month before. The data can be volatile because of the number of apartments authorized, which totaled 24 for the month compared with 60 in September. A small rise is expected now.
  4. ANZ Commodity Prices: Thursday, 2:00. The ANZ Commodity Price Index rose by 4.5% in November following 2.9% increase in October. This is the third consecutive increase after 3 successive falls. Rising commodity prices are strengthen New Zealand’s weak economic recovery. A similar increase is expected now.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical  Analysis

The New Zealand dollar lost its high levels at the beginning of the week, and then struggled with the 0.7575 line (mentioned last week) before making a recovery attempt and failing to breach the 0.7644 line. It closed at 0.7596.

Looking down, immediate and minor support is found at 0.7575. Much stronger support appears at 0.7523, that was a swing high a long time ago, and returns to have an important role now.

Lower, 0.74 is a strong support line, working twice like this in recent months. When this line was finally broken, it was followed closely by 0.7350 – which is now of high  importance  as well.

Below, 0.7210 was a stepping stone for the kiwi on the way up and now provides support.  Even lower, 0.7160 was a resistance line in July and also in August, and now works as support. The last line for now is 0.6950, which was the lowest line in 6 months.

Looking up, 0.7644, which capped the pair back in October, is now an important line of resistance. It’s closely followed by 0.7673, which prevented a rise for two consecutive days in December.

Above, 0.7738 is a minor line – it provided support at the beginning of November.  Higher, 0.7975 was the 2010 high and serves as strong resistance, just under the round number of 0.80.

Even higher, 0.81 was an important resistance level back in 2008, and it’s followed by the all-time high of 0.8214.

I an bearish on NZD/USD.

The weakness of commodities, the strength of the US economy and the slowdown in China all weigh on NZD/USD.

Further reading: