NZD/USD Outlook – July 11-15

Gross Domestic Product is the highlight of this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Average Cash Earnings  increased last week by 1.1% from 1.4% drop in the previous month. The reading was contrary to expectations of another 0.4% drop and Core Machinery Orders also showed 3.0% increase after the 3.3% plunge in the previous quarter. Both indicators reflect a recovery in the market.  Let’s Start:

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. REINZ HPI: Fri-Thu The New Zealand REINZ housing price index decreased by 1.8% following a previous gain of 1.1% that in March increasing house sales 10.8% from -4.2% a year earlier indicating a recovery trend in the housing industry after a long recession. A small increase is expected now.
2.  Food Price Index: Tuesday, 22:45.New Zealand food prices increased by 0.5% in May amid price climbs in fruit and vegetables after 0.1% increase in April. Food prices increased 7.4% on a yearly base the largest increase since July 2009. A smaller rise is predicted.
3. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 22:30.New Zealand manufacturing rose by 2.7 points in May the highest level since June 2010 reaching 57.7. This growth trend followed a rise in commodity prices increasing manufacturers’ gains.
4. New Zealand GDP: Wednesday 22:45. New Zealand’s gross domestic product expanded by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010 above the 0.1% growth expected. GDP is expected to grow further amid rapid major export markets and improvement of domestic economic conditions. A rise of 0.3% is expected now. See how to trade this event.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

The kiwi dollar traded at a relatively narrow range against the greenback. It was supported by the 0.8240 line, a new line that didn’t appearlast week. It eventually reached new highs, but didn’t get to far.

Technical levels from top to bottom:

In uncharted territory, the round number of 0.84 is the next frontier, just above the fresh but not too distant all time high reached now.

0.83 became more distinctive in the past week, separating ranges, and is now of high importance. 0.8240 proved to be an important line of support in the past two weeks or so.

The 81 line, followed by 0.8080 also provided resistance in the past, but is now support. once again. Although it is weaker now, it will be be tested if the pair falls below the aforementioned 0.8240..

The previous post crisis high of 0.7975 remains an important line, remaining very distinctive, separating ranges. The importance of this line was seen as the pair bounced off it.

100 pips lower, we meet 0.7875, which was support in 2010, and will be a line of support on a fall of the pair.  0.7825 is important support after capping the pair at the beginning of the year, and working as support twice more recently. It’s somewhat weaker now.

0.7746 worked as support in November and as resistance in January and proved to be important support when the pair was trading lower. Further support is found at the 0.7655 peak seen in February.

I am neutral on NZD/USD.

The fears of a global slowdown, as reflected in the fresh  Non-Farm Payrolls  report in the US, weigh also on the kiwi, despite the optimism in New Zealand.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.