NZD/USD Outlook – July 4-8

NZIER Business Confidence and GDP are the highlight this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week NBNZ business confidence improved to a  9 month high   reaching 46.5 from 38.3 in May This major indicator of economic condition bares optimistic tidings together with improved building consents increasing by 2.2%. Will this trend continue?

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Let’s Start

1. ANZ Commodity Prices: Monday, 1:00. New Zealand commodity prices increased by 0.3% in May after climbing 1.6% in the previous month due to the sharp rise in the prices of the kiwifruit.
2. NZIER Business Confidence: Monday, 22:00. New Zealand businesses sentiment plunged to -27 in the first quarter following the Christchurch earthquake however an increase is expected in light of the steady recovery in the NZ market.
3. GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. New Zealand’s gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010 following a decrease of 0.2% in the previous quarter. The expansion was led by a stronger manufacturing activity. A rise of 0.3% is expected.
4. REINZ HPI: Fri-Thu The New Zealand REINZ housing price index decreased by 1.8% following a previous gain of 1.1% that in March increasing house sales 10.8% from -4.2% a year earlier indicating a recovery trend in the housing industry after a long recession.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

After a slow start in the low .80s, the kiwi jumped higher. It even temporarily breached the previous record of 0.83, but couldn’t hold on to this achievement.

Technical levels from top to bottom:

In uncharted territory, the round number of 0.84 is the next frontier. The new all time high above 0.83 was only temporarily breached.

0.83 is now a pivotal line which the pair struggles around The previous all-time high of 0.8215 is still important just below, and now works as support.

The 81 line, followed by 0.8080 also provided resistance in the past, but is now support. once again. Although it is weaker now, it will be be watched at the beginning of the week.

The previous post crisis high of 0.7975 remains an important line, remaining very distinctive, separating ranges. The importance of this line was seen as the pair bounced off it.

100 pips lower, we meet 0.7875, which was support in 2010, and will be a line of support on a fall of the pair.  0.7825 is important support after capping the pair at the beginning of the year, and working as support twice more recently. It’s somewhat weaker now.

0.7746 worked as support in November and as resistance in January and proved to be important support when the pair was trading lower. Further support is found at the 0.7655 peak seen in February.

0.7523 is a veteran resistance line, that worked as strong support in January and remains important. 0.74 was a line of support twice in during the fall and is the next line.

I am neutral on NZD/USD.

The end of QE2 in the US balances the higher commodity prices seen now. All in all, the economy in New Zealand is quite stable and more trading at higher ranges is likely.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.