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The  kiwi  couldn’t fly anymore and lost some ground.  Inflation data and the rate decision are the major events this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week the number of visitors entered NZ in August edged up by 18.1% much higher than the 4.2% rise in the previous month and Credit card spending also increased by 5.2% from4.7% in the preceding month indicating positive trend for the NZ economy. ill things continue to improve?

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD/USD Chart October 24 28 2011

  1. Inflation data: Monday, 21:45. Consumers price index jumped in the third quarter by 1.0 % above the 0.8% increase expected. The main causes of this increase are higher prices for petrol, food, air travel and electricity. The previous reading reflected a 0.8% climb. CPI is predicted to climb by 0.8%. See how to trade this event with NZD/USD here.
  2. NBNZ Business Confidence: Wednesday, 0:00. New Zealand’s business sentiment dropped to a five-month low in September following concerns over possible effect of the European debt crisis on global markets reaching 30.3 after34.4 in the previous month. The same figure is expected this time.
  3. Rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard decided to postpone the predicted rate hike leaving the rate at 2.50%, amid concerns fora global slowdown despite the firm recovery of NZ domestic economy. The bank predicts the economy to grow 2.8% in the March 2012 year, more than the 2.5% forecasted in June, with slower growth in 2013 of 3.1%. The same rate is expected now.
  4. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 21:45.New Zealand’s trade deficit was wider than predicted in August with rising demand of fuel, transport equipment and machinery increasing imports over exports by NZ$641 million after NZ$111 million surplus in the previous month. Economists predicted NZ$315 million deficit. Deficit is expected to decline to NZ$421 million.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar dipped under the 0.7895 line (mentioned last week) but recovered and managed to stay above this line. Despite the recovery at the end of the week, NZD/USD still closed the week lower.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

Many lines are listed as volatility could erupt once again. 0.8505 is also a notable point which provided a temporary cushion for the pair when it traded higher. It is now weak resistance.  It is followed by 0.8410 – which was a stubborn line of resistance is already a stronger line.

0.8330 has a more important rose now after capping a surge higher. 0.8275 has worked as support in August and in September, and is also of higher importance of capping the pair for some time. It serves as immediate support.

0.8180 provided support in July and also in September 0.8120 was a double bottom before the fall and also provided some support in June.A  break above this line will be of importance

0.8090 worked as support in June and in July and is immediate resistance now, for a second week in a row.  Below, 0.7975 was a long running peak and provided support back in May and in July. It was run through during the downfall and is weaker now.

0.7895 was minor support in May and returns to being minor. It was tackled also in September.  A more important line is 0.7825. It capped the pair three times, in January and in September, and provided support in April. This is an area of struggle.

0.7764 was important support in May and managed to slow down the fall. It is weaker now, after being run through.  0.7655 was significant resistance back in February and also in 2010 and is now support once again.

0.7524 was an important line of support at the beginning of the year, and later switched to resistance. It provided some support in October as well. The fresh low of 0.7468 seen in October is a strong line of support.

I remain bearish on NZD/USD.

The evidence of the Chinese “landing” as well as the troubles in Europe could weigh on the kiwi, and make the small falls seen last week a prelude to bigger falls now.

Further reading:

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