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The kiwi made an impressive move upwards and is very close to the all time high. Can it break higher? NBNZ Business Confidence and Building Consents are the major events this week. Here is an outlook on the market-movers lined up and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

2-Year Inflation Expectations in New Zealand  is forecasted to grow to 3.0% within the next two years according to the RBNZ’s survey of 75 business executives. Inflation Expectations  in February was 2.64%.   In one year time inflation is expected to increase to 3.12%.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD USD Chart May 30 June 3

  1. Trade Balance: Sunday, 23:45. New Zealand expanded its trade balance surplus in March reaching NZ$464 million from NZ$193 million in the previous month. The increase was led by higher quantities of dairy products. Trade balance surplus is expected to further improvement to NZ$603 million.
  2. NBNZ Business Confidence: Tuesday, 2:00. Business confidence recovered during April rising 14.2 points after the 8.7 drop in March an encouraging sign for recovery in the market with improvement in employment and Residential investment plans all showing expansion.
  3. Overseas Trade Index: Tuesday, 23:45. New Zealand’s terms of trade improved in December quarter by 0.6% reaching its highest level in 35 years. Export prices increased while import prices dropped
  4. ANZ Commodity Prices: Wednesday, 2:00. Exported commodity process rose  by 1.6% in April to 342.5 climbing 25% in the past 12 months. S ride in apple prices led increase. The surge in commodity prices certainly helps the economic recovery in NZ.
  5. OPEC Meetings: Thursday. Dramatic events occurred in the Arab world since the last OPEC meeting in December with extensive uprising in major Arab states in North Africa including Tunisia, Egypt and Libya resulting in removing presidents. It seems like President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of  Iran will participate in the meeting after firing his oil minister and there is no telling about Libya’s participation.
  6. Building Consents: Thursday, 23:45. New Zealand’s number of building approvals improve d in March by 2.4% after dropping drastically 9.8% in the previous month in light of the Christchurch earthquake.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical  Analysis

At the beginning of the week, the kiwi was still struggling under the previous peak of 0.7975 (discussed  last week). NZD/USD later made a leap and after conquering the 81 line, it closed at 81.87, close to the all time high.

Technical levels from top to bottom:

The all-time high of 0.8215 is naturally the highest point. The pair is getting closer to this area. . The 81 line, which was also a line of resistance now now switches to support.

The previous post crisis high of 0.7975 remains an important line, remaining very distinctive, separating ranges. The importance of this line was seen just now. 100 pips lower, we meet 0.7875, which was support in 2010, is a pivotal line now.

0.7825 is important support after capping the pair at the beginning of the year, and working as support twice in the past month. It’s somewhat weaker now.

0.7746 worked as support in November and as resistance in January and proved to be important support now. Further support is found at the 0.7655 peak seen in February.

0.7523 is a veteran resistance line, that worked as strong support in January and remains important. 0.74 was a line of support twice in during the fall and is the next line. The last line for now is the December trough of 0.7350.

I am neutral on NZD/USD.

The New Zealand dollar enjoyed the  weakness of the US economy and also some recovery in commodity prices. On the other hand, there is some room for correction after the wild ride.

Further reading: