NZD/USD Outlook -April 18-22

Inflation rate is the main event this wee. Here’s an outlook for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD that manged to sneak to a three year high at the end of the week.

The New Zealand government’s Debt Management Office announced it plans to raise its borrowing by NZ$1.5 billion for the fiscal year to June 30 to NZ$16.5 billion ($12.9 billion). This is the second increase in borrowing in two weeks. The announcement raised strong investor demand.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Inflation rate: Sunday, 23:45. New Zealand’s consumer price index rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010 from the previous quarter and gained 4 % from a year earlier. The reading was in line with expectations. The increase was attributed to a rise in goods and services tax (GST). A more modest rise of 1.0% is predicted.
2. Credit Card Spending: Thursday, 4:00. New Zealand  credit card spending rose 5.3% in February on a yearly base from 5.5% in the previous month. This increase was driven by the durables industry which gained 2.5 % and in retail increased 1.3 % during the month. The household sector purchases continue to be weak. A similar rise is expected now.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical  Analysis

The kiwi began the week quite easily, struggling with the 0.7824 line (discussed last week). It then made a move higher and gradually drifted above resistance lines, eventually breaking the 0.7974 line and closing just under the round number of 0.80.

Looking down, there are many lines now. The first and most prominent line was just broken – 0.7975, which was the peak in November. IT’s followed by 0.7875 which  provided temporary support and later resistance, when the kiwi was trading higher at the beginning of November, and is a minor line of support now.

Lower, we meet the area of struggle – 0.7825, which held the pair twice in recent months and now has a more minor role.

Moving lower, we meet 0.7750. This was a peak resistance earlier in the year, remains a minor support line on the way down. It’s followed by 0.7655, which is a stronger line, after capping the pair in October and also a few months ago.

Moving lower, the next line of support is only at 0.7523, which is now only a minor line, after being shattered two weeks ago

Looking up, the lines are  3 years old –  81 was a peak back in 2007 and is the first high line. It’s followed by the all time high of 82.15 recorded in February and March 2008. This is the ultimate line of resistance.

I an bullish on NZD/USD.

The current rise of the kiwi is quite healthy. This rally began after New Zealand escaped a recession and as food prices rise. The break above 0.7975 is significant.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.