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US dollar weakness and rising commodity prices helped the kiwi advance steadily as it approaches the highest levels since the financial crisis. Here’s an outlook for the events that will move the New Zealand dollar this week, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

Not only oil is on the rise, but also food which New Zealand exports is moving higher – the kiwi follows. Will this continue now?

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

NZD USD Forex Forecast April 11-15

  1. REINZ HPI: Publication time unknown at the moment. This highly regarded report about the prices of homes tends to move the kiwi. Prices have been going up and down in recent months, without a clear direction. A strong rise of 2.3% gave a boost to NZD/USD last month. A drop is more likely this time.
  2. FPI: Tuesday, 22:45. As a big exporter of agricultural goods, the Food Price Index matters to the New Zealand dollar. After a significant rise of 1.8% two months ago, a modest rise of 0.1% was reported last month. A higher rise is predicted now.
  3. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 22:30. This is actually a purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector. The score has been above the critical 50 point mark in the past 4 months, indicating growth. Given the Christchurch earthquake in March, a drop is expected from January’s 53.7 score.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

After the kiwi made a breakout above the 0.7655 line (discussed last week), it settled above it, and didn’t look back. Later in the week it traded between the 0.7750 and 0.7825 levels, closing just under the top line, at 0.7823.

Looking up, immediate resistance is very close. The 0.7825 line capped the pair twice – in December and in February. NZD/USD tested higher ground above it, but didn’t couldn’t settle above this line. This will be an important test at the beginning of week.

Above, 0.7875 provided temporary support and later resistance, when the kiwi was trading higher at the beginning of November, and is a minor resistance line now. It’s followed b the 2010 peak of 79.75, the highest level since the financial crisis, which is very tough line.

Higher above, we meet lines last seen 3 years ago. 81 was a peak back in 2007 and is the first high line. It’s followed by the all time high of 82.15 recorded in February and March 2008. This is the ultimate line of resistance.

Looking down, 0.7750, which was a peak resistance earlier in the year, remains a minor support line on the way down. It’s followed by 0.7655, which is a stronger line, after capping the pair in October and also a few months ago.

Moving lower, the next line of support is only at 0.7523, which is now only a minor line, after being shattered two weeks ago. It’s followed by 0.74, November important support.

Below 074, we have quite a crowded area –  0.7350 was a cushion back in December and it’s followed by  0.73, which was a stepping stone on the way up. It’s role is minor now.

There are more lines below, some marked on the chart, but they’re too far now.

I turn from bullish to neutral on NZD/USD.

The economy in New Zealand avoided a recession and food prices are rising. On the other hand, the current move was quite sharp, and can trigger some profit taking, especially after one of the drivers of the US dollar’s weakness, the fear of government shutdown, was averted now.

Also the Aussie seems overbought.

Further reading: