NZD/USD Outlook – Aug 29 – Sep 2

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The kiwi eventually had a happy end after three weeks of falls. Will this continue? Building Consents and NBNZ Business Confidence are the major events this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week was quite good for NZ economy with trade balance remaining on surplus reaching129 million while a deficit of 124 million was predicted, Retail sales increased by 0.9% again above expectations of 0.6% rise and Core retail sales increasing by 1.0% while 0.7% gain was predicted. Will this positive trend continue?

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD USD Chart August 29 September 2 2011

  1. Building Consents: Monday, 22:45.  New Zealand building consents dropped 1.4% in June to 1031 units last month after 2.4% gain in the previous month. However the general trend shows a cautious recovery in the property market.
  2. NBNZ Business Confidence: Wednesday, 1:00. Business confidence increased to 47.6 in July. This is the fourth consecutive rise amid Christchurch reconstruction activity, investments and work force demand placing NZ in a better position than before the February earthquake.
  3. Overseas Trade Index: Wednesday, 22:45. New Zealand Terms of Trade Index improved unexpectedly by 0.9% in the first quarter following 0.8% gain in the preceding quarter giving further proof of NZ economic recovery.
  4. ANZ Commodity Prices: Thursday, 1:00.  New Zealand commodity prices dropped by 0.1% in July, amid a decrease in prices of woods and dairy products.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The kiwi began the week climbing higher. After a first failed attempt to break higher, the pair fell. A second attempt was more successful, but stopped at the 0.8410 line (discussed last week).

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start from a higher peak – 0.8843. It’s closely followed by 0.88 which is also distant resistance.

Below, the previous peak of 0.8675 switched positions to resistance very quickly, and is a strong line now. It is closely followed by 0.8620, which was the lower border of a temporary range. It’s a minor line.

Further support turned resistance is at 0.8580,  but managed to play in both directions during July and now as well. 0.8505 is also a notable point. It is followed by 0.8410 – which worked perfectly for another week as a strong resistance line.

0.8275, which worked as support and later as resistance proved to be good as support as well. 0.8240 managed to hold the pair down, and was only temporarily breached. 0.8150, which prevented a deeper fall once again, is a strong support line.

The 81 line, followed by 0.8080 also provided resistance in the past, but are now support. once again. This region provided a cushion after the recovery move.

Below, 0.7975 was a long running peak and proved to be relevant once again as the swing low of the big fall. A drop below this line will open the road to 0.7875, followed by 0.7825.

I am bearish on NZD/USD.

The global slowdown and the lower chance of QE3 in the US are likely to weigh on the pair. Any shift in the expectations towards QE3 will boost the pair.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Anat Dror – Senior Writer

I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew.

In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students.

I’ve also worked as a community organizer