The New Zealand dollar had success in weathering the strength of the US dollar in a busy week. Trade balance and building consents are the major events lined up. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD
The improvement seen in the US job market began helping the US dollar against risk currencies, contrary to behavior seen beforehand. Yet this change might be temporary. The New Zealand dollar managed to make an impressive break above 0.79 and topped out at 0.7964 before new worries hit Europe.
Updates: Some European short covering pushed NZD/USD higher, after a weak start.
NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Trade Balance: Sunday, 21:45.New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed considerably in October, better than analysts anticipated amid strong overseas sales of meat and wool reducing deficit to NZ$282 million from a revised NZ$789 million deficit in September. Prime Minister John Key, encourages exporters to boost sales even as global prices decline. An increase in deficit to NZ$294 million is predicted now.
- Building Consents: Monday, 21:34. The number building permits released in New Zealand edged up 11.2% in October following a 17.2 plunge in the previous month. The biggest numbers were registered in Auckland.
- ANZ Commodity Prices: Thursday, 0:00.New Zealand commodity prices dropped in November by 1.0%. This is the sixth consecutive decline led by lower prices for butter, cheese and aluminium. This decline followed a 3.5% decrease in the previous month. Consequently New Zealand’s terms of trade dropped 0.7% in the three months ended Sept. 30.
- REINZ HPI : Thu-Mon New Zealand REINZ’s house price index increased by 1.1% in November rising 2.6% higher than in the previous year suggesting a recovery in the housing sector.
* All times are GMT.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/dollar began 2012 with a rise to challenge the 0.79 line (discussed last week). It then lost ground and traded between 0.7773 and 0.7840.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
0.8240 was a peak in October and also back in May 2011. It is followed by 0.8165 provided support for the pair at several occasions, last seen in October.
81.10 switched positions from support in August to resistance later on and is a minor line on the way up. 0.8060 was resistance in October and support beforehand.
The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance. Another round number, 0.79, is now stronger resistance after capping a rise at the beginning of 2012.
0.7840 worked as cap for a range and earlier stopped the pair in October. It then became much stronger in December, holding the range. The pair approached in the last days of 2011, but couldn’t really challenge it. 0.7773 was the bottom border of a range at the beginning of 2012, and also in December.
0.77 provided support in December and is now minor support. 0.7637 was a swing low in September and provided its strength in December as a swing low. It is a still strong, after capping a recovery attempt in December.
0.7550 now has a stronger role after working as a very distinct line separating ranges. It had a similar role back in January. 0.7470 was the trough in October and worked as perfect support in December.
The fresh low of 0.7370 seen in November is the lowest level since March and will be tested on the way down. 0.7340 was minor support back in February and March and is minor now.
The last line is the veteran 0.72, which worked as support many times in the past.
I remain bearish on NZD/USD
The troubles in Europe still have a strong and depressing impact on the kiwi. In addition, the Chinese landing hasn’t played out yet.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
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