NZD/USD Outlook – July 26-30

The rate decision is the highlight in New Zealand’s events this week – another raise will definitely support the kiwi. Here’s an outlook for the events that will move the kiwi dollar and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

NZD/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

NZD/USD didn’t really get out of the trade range that we already know. Will it break out this week?

1. NBNZ Business Confidence: Published on Wednesday at 3:00 GMT. This survey of 1500 businesses has been positive in the past 13 months, indicating optimism in New Zealand’s business community. After peaking at 50.1 points, the indicator made a slide to 40.2 points. A small rise is expected this time.
2. Rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. Alan Bollard didn’t surprise the markets in the previous meeting, and finally increased the Official Cash Rate from 2.50% to 2.75%. Although warning that the current tightening cycle will be milder than the previous one, another hike is expected – to 3%. It’s also important to follow the wording of the RBNZ Rate Statement, which will provide an indication about future moves.
3. Trade Balance: Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. New Zealand enjoys a surplus in its trade balance for 5 consecutive months. The surplus steadily rose up to 814 billion last month. It’s now expected to make a dip to 369 million.
4. Building Consents: Published on Thursday at 22:45 GMT. This important housing figure (known elsewhere as building permits) has been very volatile in recent months. After a leap of 8.5% two months ago, it fell by 9.6% last month. This seesaw will probably continue with a rise this time.

After the bad close in the previous week, NZD/USD gradually climbed at the wake of the new week. A first attempt around the 0.7160 to 0.72 area met resistance and the pair fell. But this Friday was better, and the pair manged to close around 0.7270, making a neat weekly gain.

NZD/USD is currently bound between 0.72, a round number that is a minor line of support, and 0.7325, which capped it May and also a few weeks ago. Note that some of the lines have changed since last week’s outlook.

Higher, 0.7440 was the a stubborn stronghold at the beginning of the year and is the next resistance line. Above, November’s peak of 0.7520 is the next line of resistance, followed by 0.7640.

Looking down below 0.7160, the next support line is a round number, 0.70. It was tested at the beginning of the past week, as well as beforehand. Below, 0.6910 capped the pair when it was trading lower, and is a minor line of support.

The 0.68 line held the pair in February and also at the beginning of July, making it a strong line of support. There are a few more lines below, with 0.6560 being the most significant one.

I remain bullish on NZD/USD.

The economy in New Zealand is doing well. The rising interest rates expected this week,  continue attracting  investors, creating a potential for further rises of the kiwi.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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