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The kiwi  returned to falls as the economy doesn’t look that good. Will the pair fall under 0.80?  NBNZ Business Confidence is the main event this week Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

Last week, GDP figures were softer than predicted for the fourth quarter with a 0.3% gain instead of the 0.6% expansion anticipated. The yearly growth rate was also below expectations slowing to 1.8% growth rate while 2.2% was expected. However reconstruction work in  Canterbury is  predicted to boost growth in the second half of 2012.

Updates: Trade Balance jumped up, recording a  surplus of 161M.  NZD/USD  dipped below the 82 level, trading at 0.8193. Markets are waiting for the release of NBNZ Business Confidence.  NBNZ Business Confidence shot up to 33.8, a sixth-month high

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD/USD Chart March 26 30 2012

  1. Trade Balance: Sunday, 21:45. New Zealand announces a trade deficit of 199 million in January due to an aircraft purchase transaction, altering predictions of a 184 million surplus. The previous reading registered a surplus of 306 million. Annual exports increased 10% to $48.14 billion, while imports rose 11% to $47.94 billion. A trade balance surplus of 154 million is expected now.
  2. NBNZ Business Confidence: Thursday, 0:00. New Zealand business confidence rebounded from the beginning of 2012 posting growth trend reaching28.0 in February amid a boost in the construction activity. This is a relatively good reading considering the downward risks from the EU and the slowdown in the Chinese economy.
  3. Building Consents: Thursday, 21:45.  New Zealand home building consents edged up last month by 8.3% to 1,326 amid a surge of rebuilding projects  in Canterbury following the devastating earthquakes. The previous reading showed a rise of 2.6%. n the year, total home building approvals dropped 9.1%.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

NZD/USD dropped from the highs and found support only at the 0.8060 line (mentioned last week). It then managed to recover and closed the week at 0.8174.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We start from high ground. 0.8573 was a stubborn line of resistance during August 2011 and remains of high importance. 0.8505 was a peak on the way up during July. A move higher in February 2012 fell short of this line.

The 0.84 line separated ranges in August 2011, and earlier served as support when the kiwi traded higher. While this line was hurt recently, it still serves as a serious cap. 0.8340 was a peak in September and now returns to support. It was a tough line of struggle in February 2012.

0.8280 capped the pair in a stubborn manner during March 2012, and set the pair falling.  0.8240 was a peak in October and also back in May 2011.  It proved its strength in January 2012 and also in March 2012 as a strong resistance line.

0.8190 is the next line. It capped the pair in March 2012 and also provided some support in January. The round number of 81 worked as support in February 2012 and also later on.

0.8060 was resistance in October and support beforehand.. It was also tested in January and in March, this time as support and provided to be very strong. The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance.

Another round number, 0.79, is now stronger resistance after capping a rise at the beginning of 2012. 0.7840 worked as cap for a range and earlier stopped the pair in October. It then became much stronger in December, holding the range. The pair approached in the last days of 2011, but couldn’t really challenge it.

0.7773 was the bottom border of a range at the beginning of 2012, and also in December.  0.77 provided support in December and is now minor support. 0.7637 was a swing low in September and provided its strength in December as a swing low. It is a still strong, after capping a recovery attempt in December.

0.7550 now has a stronger role after working as a very distinct line separating ranges.  It had a similar role back in January.

I am bearish on NZD/USD

The comment by senior figures at BHP about slowing Chinese demand, as well as a lower PMI in the economic giant, cause worries for New Zealand. In addition, the absence of QE in the US, with its improving economy also weighs on the kiwi.

Further reading: