NZD/USD Outlook – November 8-12

The rising New Zealand dollar expects a rather light week after enjoying a great jobs report. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

NZD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Apart from the jobs report, the American decision on quantitative easing sent boosted the kiwi and sent it to fresh highs. Will this trend continue? Let’s start:

1. RBNZ Financial Stability Report: Tuesday, 20:00. This report if of high importance – this is drawn mainly from the fact that it is released only once every six months. The report covers employment, inflation, growth and more. It always rocks the kiwi. It’s expected to be positive this time.
2. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 21:30. This monthly report is similar to purchasing managers’ indices in other places. It has been playing around with the critical 50 point mark lately – a place that marks the difference between economic contraction and growth.  From  49.2 points last month, it’s expected to rise.
3. FPI: Wednesday, 21:45. As New Zealand exports a lot of food, the food price index is of high importance, and moves the exchange rate. The rise of 0.7% last month will probably be followed by a stronger rise this time, as many commodities have risen recently.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The kiwi settled above 0.7644 before making a strong move upwards. It briefly stopped to rest at 0.7760 (mentioned last week), before rising and closing the week at 0.7952.

Looking down, 0.7890 was a resistance line back in June 2008, and now provides immediate support.  In July 2008, 0.7760 was a peak, after working as support beforehand. It’s now support again.

0.7644 capped the pair in October 2009, and also served as resistance recently – it now works as strong support. 0.7523 was another peak on the kiwi’s way down about a year ago.

0.74 was a peak in the previous month, and now cushioned the fall of NZD/USD.  More support is found at 0.7355 which capped NZD/USD in the summer.

Even lower, 0.73 and 0.72 also worked as support and resistance lines in recent months, and are now getting closer. The round number of 0.70 is a strong and distant support line.

Looking up, the round number of 0.80 was almost reached in the past week, and is a strong point of resistance. Even higher, 0.81 was a peak in March 2008 and also back in July 2007, and is now minor resistance.

The all time high of 0.8214 serves as the ultimate resistance line – it worked as resistance twice at the beginning of 2008, making it very strong.

I am bullish on the kiwi.

The excellent employment figures in New Zealand boosts optimism. The American QE2 program means higher commodity prices which is also kiwi positive. Despite the wild ride, there’s still room for more.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.

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