NZD/USD Outlook October 1-5 2012
Minors, NZD/USD Forecast

NZD/USD Outlook October 1-5 2012

NZD/USD  remained almost unchanged in range throughout most of the week and eventually made some small gains. There are no major events in the first week of the last quarter, so the outlook will focus on the technical analysis for NZD/USD, which formed an interesting double top.

New Zealand’s trade balance disappointed with a bigger than expected deficit. On the other hand, building consents rose for a second month in a row. Global concerns, especially from China, weighed on the currency.

Updates: ANZ Commodity Prices shot up 3.5%, its highest level since February 2011. The kiwi continues to improve, and has crossed above 0.83. USD/NZD was trading at 0.8322. The kiwi has edged downwards, and is testing 0.82. NZD/USD was trading at 0.8207. The annual increase in median weekly income from wages and salaries grew by just 0.7 percent in the year ended June. This was the smallest change since 1999. NZD/USD continues to test the 0.82 line, as the pair was trading at 0.8202.

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD/USD Currency Chart October 1 5 2012

  1. ANZ Commodity Prices: Tuesday, 00:00. As a commodity currency, prices of commodities (and especially food commodities) impact the economy and the currency. After a gain of 0.5% last month, almost no change is expected now.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

NZD/$ started the week with a downfall to the 0.8180 line. This line proved to be very strong on a second downfall. The pair eventually made its way up and tested the high levels of 0.8360 (a double top) before descending.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

0.8680 served as support when the pair traded higher during 2011. 0.8620 had a similar role around the same period of time.

0.8573 capped the pair in September 2011 and is distant resistance. 0.8505 served as support as well.

0.8470 was the swing high seen in February and remains important resistance. 0.84 was resistance back in February 2012.

0.8360 is a double top, after capping the pair twice during September 2012. 0.8260 capped the pair during March, and is stubborn resistance and is support once again.

0.8180 is a double bottom after providing support for the pair in September 2012. 0.8125 separated ranges in August 2012 and has renewed strength now after capping the pair in September 2012.

0.8040 capped the pair in August 2012 and also served as support during the same month. It is weak support after temporarily holding the pair down. The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance. It was hit by the recent moves and somewhat weaker now.

0.7915 served as an important cushion when the pair was falling in September 2012. 0.7840 provided support for the pair several times during June 2012 and also worked as resistance back at the end of 2011.

The round number of 0.78 is significant support after working as such in July 2012. 0.7723 supported the pair back at the beginning of 2012 and also worked in the other direction in June 2012. 0.7620 provided support in May 2012 and is resistance once again, although weaker than in previous weeks.

I am bearish on NZD/USD

Concerns over the situation in China, the growing uncertainty in Europe and the current high levels leave room for the downside.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.