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The kiwi expects a rather lightweight week in terms of economic indicators, so the technicals will play a bigger role. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

nzd usd kiwi forecast

The managed to break higher after frustrating. Will this trend continue?

  1. Manufacturing Sales: Published on Tuesday at 22:45 GMT. While being a rather late figure, the quarterly frequency makes this number important. New Zealand is expected to enjoy a third straight quarter of growth in the volume of sales at manufacturers gates, after 0.7% and 0.9% rises beforehand.
  2. Overseas Trade Index: Published on Thursday at 22:45 GMT. This indicator has proven very relevant for New Zealand. It measures the change in purchase power. The past two quarters were positive, with rises of 5.7% and 5.9%. Another quarter of growth is predicted now, but it will probably be more modest – 2.3%.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The kiwi had a bad start with a drop under 0.70. It bottomed out at 0.6947 before recovering. After a struggle with the 0.7160 line (mentioned in last week’s outlook), Friday’s move sent it temporarily above 0.72, reaching 0.7218 before closing just under 0.72.

NZD/USD is now in a narrow range between 0.7160, which was a stubborn peak in June and also in the past week,  to 0.72, which also worked as support.

Below, 0.70 is a critical round number that is closely eyed by traders. Lower,  0.69 is the next line of support. It  previously  worked as a line of resistance in May, after the pair fell down sharply.

Below, 0.68, that was a swing low in mid-July and also held NZD/USD in February is the next support line. Lower, 0.6685 worked as support back in September and was a pivotal line in July. The final line for now is the year-to-date low of 0.6560.

Looking up, 0.7325 capped the pair during August and serves as the next resistance line if 0.72 is cleared. This is followed by  the 0.7440 region, which capped the pair when it traded higher.

Higher, 0.7523 was a swing high back in November 2009, and serves as a minor line of resistance. Even higher, the 0.7634 peak reached almost a year ago, is the final frontier for now.

I am neutral on NZD/USD this week.

Without really important data, the kiwi is likely to swing with the mood in the global markets. The earthquake that hit the country’s southern island isn’t expected to cause an earthquake in currencies.

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