NZD/USD Trading the New Zealand Business Confidence


The New Zealand Business Confidence index surveys a wide range of businesses to determine confidence in the business sector. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the New Zealand dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for NZD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

The Business Confidence index measures businesses in a wide range sectors, such as manufacturing, retail and services. These readings can have a significant impact on the direction of NZD/USD.

The index rose nicely in July, climbing to 15.1 points. Given some recent positive economic data, the markets are hopeful of another solid release this month.

Sentiment and Levels

Although we are seeing some improvement  in Europe, the weaker Chinese data and a potential disappointment from Bernanke in Jackson Hole towards the end of the week could hurt the kiwi. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on NZD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.8260, 0.8220, 0.8125, 0.80, 0.79 and 0.7840.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 12.0 to 18.0: In this scenario, NZD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: 18.1 to 21.0: In this scenario, the pair could push the pair above one resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 21.0: A sharp rise in the index could propel NZD/USD upwards, and two or more resistance lines could be broken.
  4. Below expectations: 8.0 to 11.9: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 8.0: A very poor reading will hurt confidence in the kiwi, and NZD/USD could break two or more support levels.

For more on the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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