It was another very quiet session for global markets as oil prices continue to fall amid signs OPEC will not cut output. European inflation numbers were the only bit on the data front, all of which arrived in line having little impact on the broad market. In the FX space, the Russian ruble that was again the outlier for performance, weakening as the EU and the US weighed further sanctions against Russia’s economy. In the G-10 space, the pound remains weakest, continuing its slide following yesterday’s Quarterly Inflation Report. The US dollar is broadly weaker as NY Fed President Dudley, speaking at a conference in the UAE, cautioned it may be premature for the US to begin raising rates.
As stated in yesterday’s report, there were some rumors that Japanese Prime Minister Abe would call for an election in December. There was slightly more clarity overnight as an LDP official confirmed to local media that Mr. Abe will go through and call for an early election. The yen was unmoved on this news, clinging to five year lows versus the dollar in the wake of the decision to ramp up their QE purchases on October 31st. Elsewhere in Asia, China released industrial production and retail sales figures for the month of October. While retail sales met targets of +11.5% YOY, industrial production missed by a small margin coming in at +7.7%. The markets largely ignored this news.
It was another quiet session in mainland Europe, as inflation figures for Germany, France and Spain paced the market. All figures were bang in line, but European equities once again dipped into negative territory as energy producers dragged stocks lower. Oil prices slumped once again, this time hitting 4-year lows, on the news that OPEC would not cut output. Oil has entered a bear market as OPEC reduced export prices to the US, where output has climbed to the highest level in more than thirty years. It will be interesting to see how this market continues to trade as the polar vortex once again comes into play, driving up heating oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic. The pound is trading at 14-month lows after yesterday’s surprisingly bearish Quarterly Inflation Report. Slumping below 1.5800, the pound continues to trade heavy as the Bank of England cut growth projections and acknowledged inflation could fall below 1% on depressed wages.
As the North American session opens, it is US weekly jobs numbers and Canadian housing prices on the data front. In the US, there were 290k new claims for unemployment benefits, 10k more than forecast, as Canadian house prices for September were a tough below expectations, coming in +1.6%. Speaking in the Mid-East earlier today, New York Fed President William Dudley said the time hasn’t yet arrived for the US central bank to begin raising short-term interest rates. The US dollar has been sliding against most major currencies on these comments but not moving materially. Consolidation reigns supreme for most of the major currency pairs, sideways trading into the weekend. Tomorrow we get European GDP figures and US retail sales figures to close out the week.
Further reading:
US jobless claims rise to 290K – dollar ticks down
EUR/USD Nov. 13 – In the upper range, ahead of US jobs data, Yellen
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