According to the Belgian television station RTBF, centrist Macron is set to sweep into the presidency by a wide margin of 62-67% for him against 33-38% for Le Pen. The station has seen results of four opinion polls and surveys leaked to the station. The publication of such figures is forbidden in France before voting ends at 20:00 local time, 18:00 GMT.
Another Belgian outlet reports that Macron has over 60% support.
Update: President Macron – official exit polls show 65% – EUR/USD set to rise
Update: the same RBTF station now reports a win for Macron between 62% to 65%. You can follow them here in French.
The level of abstention is expected to be 25.3% according to IPSOS.
Also in the first round, Belgian sources were quick to publish exit poll data that proved correct. All in all, French opinion polls were very accurate. In addition, exit polls in France use real votes rather than a second voting and have been refined through the years.
These reports are a bit early and provide a more encouraging figure from what was reported earlier: low turnout that would favor Le Pen. Official data shows that turnout stood at 65.3% at 15:00 GMT, down from 69.4% in the first round and much lower than nearly 72% in the second round of the 2012 elections.
French elections – all the updates in one place
Markets are closed. The euro could pick up on a Macron win and totally crash on a Le Pen. The risk is asymmetric.
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