The latest IPSOS poll on the Scottish referendum shows an extremely narrow majority of 51% for No and 49% for Yes. This is well within the “too close to call” error area. Counting the undecideds, there is no No majority: only 49% No, 47% Yes and 5% undecideds. Another poll published earlier shows a slightly wider No majority, but also very tight.
GBP/USD is sliding from the highs reached earlier on a more favorable poll.
It is important to note that the question was: “Should Scotland become independent?” and not what the voting intentions are.
An earlier poll by Panelbase showed 52% / 48% for No. Contrary to the polls released last night, we had a clearer majority for No when counting the undecideds: 50% versus 45% for Yes.
GBP/USD reached 1.6457 earlier and is now at 1.6315. There is quite a lot of action on every poll in this close race.
More on the big event:
- Scotland Referendum: Timetable for forex traders
- The case for Yes – 5 reasons why the polls could possible be totally wrong on Scotland
- Scotland Referendum: what the betting odds imply for GBP/USD
- GBP/USD could retest 2010 lows if Scotland votes to leave UK
- Latest podcast, which also includes the Scottish referendum
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