Currency markets kicked off the week quite slowly ahead of the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday and as the US Mid-Term Elections are getting closer. What’s next?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but the prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high.
After holding a ‘negative’ EUR view for more than a week (see update on 18 Oct, spot at 1.1505), we warned last Friday (26 Oct, spot at 1.1375), “short-term indicators are at severely oversold levels and it is unlikely EUR can maintain the pace of its current decline”. We added, “a dip below 1.1350 is not ruled out but at this stage, the prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high”. EUR dipped to a low of 1.1332 during London hours on Friday before staging a robust rebound and closed higher for the day (NY close of 1.1401, +0.23%). The price action reinforces our view and we continue to see low risk for a break of 1.1297. That said, only a move above the 1.1450 ‘key resistance’ (no change in level) would indicate that the ‘negative’ phase has ended and a short-term bottom is in place.
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP is searching and possibly close to making a short-term bottom.
There is not much to add to last Friday’s (26 Oct, spot at 1.2820) update. As highlighted, any weakness below the strong 1.2790 support could be limited to 1.2750. GBP subsequently dropped to a low of 1.2777 before rebounding strongly and broke a 4-day losing streak, albeit not by much (NY close of 1.2827, +0.07%). Until the ‘key resistance’ at 1.2890 (level previously at 1.2920) is taken out, another dip closer to 1.2750 is not ruled but after last Friday’s price action, it seems increasingly likely that GBP is searching and possibly close to finding a short-term bottom.
AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Prospect for a move to 0.7000 is not high.
AUD staged a brief decline last Friday and rebounded strongly from a low of 0.7021 to close higher for the day (NY close of 0.7087, +0.11%). After several days of ‘quiet’ price action, the sudden burst in volatility came as a surprise. In recent updates, we expected AUD “to trade with a slight downward bias” and were of the view that a break of the 0.7041 year-to-date low would shift the focus to 0.7000. This scenario is still intact but after last Friday’s price action, the prospect for a move to 0.7000 is not high. Meanwhile, the bias is still on the downside and only break of 0.7140 would suggest the current mild downward pressure has eased.
NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Still sideways albeit within a wider range.
We expected NZD to trade sideways since early last week (23 Oct, spot at 0.6560) and the break of the bottom of the anticipated 0.6490/0.6580 consolidation range last Friday came as a surprise. However, the decline was not sustained as NZD rebounded strongly from a low of 0.6466 to close largely unchanged for the day (NY close of 0.6525, +0.01%). The price action is more akin to an ‘expansion in range’ instead of the start of a sustained decline. In other words, we continue to hold a neutral stance and expect NZD to trade sideways in the coming days, albeit within a wider 0.6460/0.6580 range.
USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Focus is at 111.20 even though level may not come into picture so soon.
We detected the softness in the underlying tone in USD last Thursday (25 Oct, spot at 112.10) and highlighted, “a break of 111.80 would suggest further USD weakness to 111.20”. USD cracked 111.80 during NY hours last Friday and plummeted to a low of 111.36. The decline was however short-lived as it staged a strong rebound from the low but still closed markedly weaker for the day (NY close of 111.89, -0.45%). From here, the focus is at 111.20 even though this level may not come into the picture so soon. Only a break of 112.65 (‘key resistance’ previously at 112.80) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.
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