A busy day awaits traders with the ECB, BOE, CBRT, and US inflation. How are currencies positioned?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Still neutral but likely to trade within a higher range.
We have held the same view since Monday (10 Sep, spot at 1.1555) wherein we expect EUR to “probe the bottom of the expected 1.1470/1.1640 consolidation range”. Since then, EUR traded sideways between 1.1524 and 1.1649 and after the relatively firm daily closings over the past two days, the short-term downward pressure has eased. However, there is no change to the current neutral outlook and EUR is still expected to trade sideways from here, albeit likely at a higher range of 1.1550/1.1700
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Still neutral but corrective rebound could extend to 1.3170. No change in view, see an update from yesterday below. However, ‘key support’ has moved higher to 1.2945 from 1.2900 previously.
There is not much to add as GBP touched a ‘fresh’ high of 1.3087 before easing off. As highlighted yesterday (11 Sep, spot at 1.3025), while it is too soon to expect a shift to a bullish phase, the current GBP strength could extend higher and test the strong 1.3170 resistance. For now, we view any up-move as part of a corrective rebound and do not expect a sustained break above 1.3170. On the downside, only a break of 1.2900 would indicate that the prevalent upward pressure has eased
AUD/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: AUD has moved into a consolidation phase.
The sudden overnight surge in AUD, after WSJ’s report on possible new trade talks between US and China came as a surprise. The break of the 0.7160 ‘stop-loss’ (high of 0.7183) indicates that Tuesday’s (11 Sep) low of 0.7085 is the extent of the bearish phase. In other words, the bearish phase that started earlier this month (see update on 03 Sep, spot at 0.7185) has ended. The current price action is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation/correction phase. From a short-term perspective, the rebound could extend higher but any AUD strength is view as part of a 0.7100/0.7240 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained up-move.
NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Still neutral but NZD likely to trade sideways for now.
While we expected a lower NZD, we highlighted in recent updates that “we are not convinced that the current weakness can move below 0.6475 in a sustained manner”. That said, the sudden overnight surge was unexpected as NZD hit a high of 0.6565. While there is no change to the current neutral outlook, the 0.6501 low registered on Tuesday (11 Sep) is deemed as a short-term bottom. From here, NZD is expected to trade sideways to slightly higher, likely within a 0.6520/0.6615 range.
USD/JPY: Neutral (since 23 Jul 18, 111.20): Probability for a test of last month’s 112.15 peak has increased. No change in view.
While the rapid pace and extent of the rebound from last week’s 110.37 low was surprising, we are not convinced that USD is ready for a directional move. However, short-term underlying tone has clearly improved and the immediate pressure is on the upside and the probability for a test of last month’s peak near 112.15 has increased. At this stage, we do not anticipate a sustained move above this level. On the downside, only a break of 110.85 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.
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