The euro is trading lower against both the rebounding US dollar and the re-surging pound. What’s next for the common currency? Here is the view from Morgan Stanley: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Next to Japan, EMU represents another case where the yield curve has been ‘exhausted’. This environment has seen FX driven by money markets and less by long-term investment flows. Recall, negative nominal yields that find it difficult to fall further suggest that inflation expectations provide the bigger beta to real yields relative to nominal yields. Perversely, this currency environment suggests the EUR should work higher when the inflation outlook deteriorates and vice versa.This is when EMU becomes similar to Japan from an asset and FX perspective. For the EUR to decline and to break this deflationary setup, it needs a mechanism to export capital. However, EMU banks and insurance companies with their weak balance sheets will find it difficult to put on more balance sheet risk despite low EMU return expectations; this implies that the institutions may be inclined to export capital in quantity. EMU’s corporate bond market could be used to exportEURs, should it grow such that the cash raised is used outside of the Eurozone instead. This process would weaken the currency. Accordingly, we think it will be difficult for the EUR to decline unless linked to a pronounced EMU asset sell-off. June will be packed with risk events that could lead to a sell-off .The outcome of the Spanish election ( June 26) and the UK referendum on the EU (June 23) represent significant political risks, while Germany’s Constitutional Court decision on the OMT(June 21) may turn out to be an even bigger event. Die Welt is suggesting that the Court is deeply split in opinion over whether the OMT does fit with German Constitutional requirements or not. Should the Court declare the OMTas not constitutional then the Bundesbank will have to stop participating in the program, which could pose a threat to its credibility. Against this backdrop we expect a sharp increase in asset and FX volatility with investors potentially switching from GBP into EUR shorts, suggesting EURGBP would fall. For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch. Yohay Elam Yohay Elam Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts. Yohay's Google Profile View All Post By Yohay Elam Forex News Today: Daily Trading News share Read Next Closing the week – Live Market Open Yohay Elam 6 years The euro is trading lower against both the rebounding US dollar and the re-surging pound. What's next for the common currency? Here is the view from Morgan Stanley: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Next to Japan, EMU represents another case where the yield curve has been 'exhausted'. This environment has seen FX driven by money markets and less by long-term investment flows. Recall, negative nominal yields that find it difficult to fall further suggest that inflation expectations provide the bigger beta to real yields relative to nominal yields. Perversely, this currency environment suggests the EUR should work higher… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.