US retail sales beat with a drop of only -0.1% but the previous figure was revised to the downside. Core sales dropped by only -0.1% but also here there is a downside revision. The control group fell short with 0% and also the revision dropped January’s number to 0.2%. PPI was more or less as expected and the Empire State figure beat.
The US dollar is looking for a new direction.
US retail sales were expected to slide by 0.2% in February after a rise of the same scale in January. Core sales were predicted to slide by 0.2% after +0.1%, ex gas/autos carried expectations for -0.2% after +0.4% and the control group, last but not least, had +0.2% estimated after +0.6% last time.
The US dollar was generally stronger on the day.
US data releases
- Retail sales: Previous -0.2%, Expected +0.2%, Actual: -0.1% with downward revision to -0.4%.
- Core retail sales: prev. -0.2%, exp. +0.1%, actual: -0.1% with downward revision to -0.4%.
- Retail control group: prev. +0.6%, exp. +0.2%, actual: 0% with downward revision to 0.2%.
- Retail ex gas/autos: prev. +0.4%, exp. -0.2%, actual: +0.3% with downward revision to -0.1%.
- PPI m/m: prev. -0.2%, exp. +0.1%, actual: -0.2%.
- Core PPI m/m: prev. +0.4%, exp. +0.1%, actual: 0%.
- PPI y/y: exp. +0.1%, actual 0%.
- Core PPI y/y: exp. 1.1%, actual 1.2%.
- Empire Statement Manufacturing Index: exp. -10, actual +0.62 points.
All in all, the revisions take out the sting from marginal beats. This is quite mediocre in general and not upbeat like last month.
Currency reaction
- EUR/USD traded around 1.1111 and doesn’t really pick a new direction.
- GBP/USD remains depressed around 1.4160 after the growing Brexit fears.
- USD/JPY is down to 112.70 after the BOJ didn’t do anything.
- USD/CAD trades around 1.3376, up as oil prices continue falling.
- AUD/USD continues climbing down from the peak, trading at 0.7455.
- NZD/USD is at 0.6640.
The previous report was surprisingly strong after a long series of disappointments and certainly helped improve the market mood.
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