USD/CAD Forecast April 15-19 – Will Canadian CPI, retail sales shake up CAD?

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USD/CAD reversed directions last week, posting losses of 0.50%. This week’s key events are manufacturing sales, consumer inflation and retail sales. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

It was a very quiet week for Canadian events, with no major indicators. In the U.S., inflation numbers improved in March. CPI, the key gauge of consumer spending, climbed to 0.4%, its highest gain since January 2018. The producer price index also looked strong, climbing 0.6%, marking a 5-month high.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rDU58N0u/

  1. BoC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 10:30. The Bank of Canada’s quarterly survey has proved to be very impactful in some past occasions. The Ottawa-based institutions have used this report to hint about changes in monetary policy. The BoC has been in dovish mode, and investors will be looking for any hints ahead of next’s week rate decision.
  2. Manufacturing Sales: Tuesday, 8:30. The manufacturing sector has been hit hard by the U.S.-China trade war, and the indicator posted three straight declines before rebounding with a gain of 1.0% in January.
  3. OPEC Meetings: All Day. OPEC members are holding a key meeting at a time when oil prices are on the rise, with civil unrest in Libya and Venezuela, and OPEC expected to make further cuts to supplies. If oil prices continue to climb, traders can expect the Canadian dollar to rise higher.
  4. Inflation: Wednesday, 8:30. CPI jumped 0.7% in February, up sharply from the January reading of 0.1%. Core CPI, which excludes the most volatile items, also improved to 0.7% in February.
  5. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 8:30. With the global trade war taking a bite out of the export sector, Canada’s trade deficit has widened in recent months. The trade deficit in January was C$4.2 billion, higher than the estimate of C$3.5 billion.
  6. Retail Sales: Thursday, 8:30. Core Retail sales posted a weak gain of 0.1% in January, after two straight declines. Retail sales have not fared as well, recording three successive declines. Will we see an improvement in February?

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start at 1.3757, which has held since May 2017.

1.3660 was the high point for USD/CAD in December.

1.3547 capped USD/CAD in June 2017. Next, 1.3445 was the peak in early December.

1.3385 is next.

1.3350 (mentioned last week) remained relevant throughout the week.

Lower, 1.3265 was the high point in mid-November. 1.3225 has held in support since early March.

1.3175 was a swing low in late November.

1.3125 was a low point earlier that month.

1.3048 has provided support since early November.

1.2970 is just below the round level of 1.3000. This line was a trough in late October.

1.2915 has held in support since mid-October. It is the final line for now.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD

The Canadian economy has not been particularly strong, but higher oil prices have supported the Canadian dollar. Both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are in dovish mode and are yet to raise interest rates in 2019.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.