USD/CAD Forecast July 8-12 – Canadian dollar starts July with a yawn

0
After a spectacular month of June, USD/CAD had an uneventful week to kick off July. The markets will be keeping a keen eye on the Bank of Canada, which is expected to hold rates at 1.75%. Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
Canada usually posts a trade deficit, but the country finally broke through with a trade surplus in April. The surplus of C$0.8 billion was the first since August 2018. The week ended with sour employment numbers. Employment change came in at -2.2 thousand in June, the first decline in three months. This was well below the estimate of 10 thousand. 
In the U.S., the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed, slowing to 55.1, down from 56.9 a month earlier. This missed the estimate of 56.1. Key employment numbers were a mix in June. Wage growth remained stuck at 0.2% for a third successive month. Nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a strong gain of 224 thousand, well above the estimate of 162 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7%, above the estimate of 3.6%.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Housing Starts: Tuesday, 12:15. In May, housing starts slowed to 202 thousand, down from 235 thousand a month earlier. The June forecast stands at 209 thousand.
  2. Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. Building permits tend to show strong swings from month-to-month, making accurate forecasts a tricky task. In April, the indicator shot up 14.7%, its strongest gain since February 2016.
  3. BoC Rate Decision: Thursday, 12:30. The BoC has not raised rates since October, and the markets are expecting rate-setters to hold the course at the upcoming meeting. The Bank will release a rate statement along with the monetary policy report. This will be followed by a press conference with BoC Governor Stephen Poloz. If the BoC sounds dovish about economic conditions, the Canadian dollar could lose ground.
  4. NHPI: Friday, 14:30. The New Housing Price Index is a useful gauge of the strength of the housing market. The index has been flat, with readings of zero in nine of the past 10 releases. Will we see any improvement in the upcoming release?

* All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.3445 (mentioned last week) has some breathing room after strong gains by USD/CAD last week.

1.3385 is next. Close by is 1.3350.

1.3265 switched to a resistance role in mid-June.

1.3175 was a swing low in late November.

1.3125 was a low point earlier in November.

1.3048 remained relevant during the week. This line has provided support since late October. 1.2916 is next.

1.2831 is next.

1.2729 is the final support level for now.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar enjoyed a spectacular June, gaining over 3.0%. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the BoC, which is expected to hold the course on rates. If policymakers sound dovish about economic conditions, investors could respond by sending the Canadian currency dollar lower. The strong U.S. employment numbers for June could delay a rate cut from the Fed, which is good news for the greenback.

Follow us on Sticher or iTunes

Further reading:

Safe trading!

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.